But like how many eligible users are there in total, and how often do they hand out an award? Once we know those it'll be easy to do the math to find out the answer.
I'll expand on my answer: it apparently works like a lottery, every JP user with a level greater or equal than 50 gets a ticket + 1 ticket for each 10 more level they have (so lv 60 gets you 2 tickets, lv 70 3 tickets and so on). Only english language levels count. Since there's a page that lists the amount of users per level, it could be possible to calculate the probability of receiving a spotlight.
Is it once every 5 years, 10 years, or even longer than that?
joking, i got a few like 2 years ago. but none since. very rarely.
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Basically, it's random, albeit very low.
Maybe i'll do it later.
I have, however gotten two spotlight awards from other users.
On a note - Kilonova keeps getting both spotlights to give, and recieves spotlights. A lot.