Italy/USA/Mexico tied (long post alert!)

Submitted by Basaball on March 11, 2026
The background for people who don’t know the scenario:

It’s the World Baseball Classic, which is the FIFA World Cup but for baseball. Team USA is really good, and they have been every single year of the world baseball classic, including this year. Their team is like really good. They are in a division with Mexico, Italy, and two teams that have been eliminated.

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Here’s the crazy part. They have a worse record than Italy. Italy has a bunch of major leaguers but has never been considered having a chance, being ranked 14th out of 20 teams by fans’ predictions. They are going into the final game of pool play with a 3-0 record (against USA’s 3-1 and Mexico’s 2-1). Today, the last game of pool play, they are playing Mexico.

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If Mexico wins with 4 or fewer runs, Mexico and Italy advance to quarterfinals.

If Mexico wins with 5 or more runs, Mexico and USA advance to quarterfinals.

If Italy wins at all, Italy and USA advance.

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The pre-WBC predictions said that USA and Mexico would advance. But now, Italy may advance, even though they were basically counted out from the beginning. (Also the US team is mostly jerks and it will surprise everyone if they don’t get through. That’s like Argentina or France or Portugal not making it through the round robin stage of the World Cup.)

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People, react!!!

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Update: 🇲🇽 has been eliminated after losing 9-1 to 🇮🇹

3 Comments
+2
Level ∞
Mar 11, 2026
Baseball has a lot of random outcomes. A very good Major League team will only win 60% of its games. Compare that to other sports, where the best teams often win 80% or more.

So baseball is not a great sport for a tournament decided by a small number of games.

But I suppose if the best team always wins it wouldn't be fun.

I play a sport, ultimate frisbee, where Team USA wins the gold medal in international competitions almost every time. Boring.

+1
Level 52
Mar 11, 2026
Yeah but if you look at past WBC’s it’s surprising.
+1
Level 68
Mar 11, 2026
So, Mexico can eliminate us based on MOV?