Fertility is quite different from birthrate. I can be fertile like a bunny rabbit, but choose not to act upon it and remaining happy & childless. Therefore birthrate tells very little about actual fertility, except if they really are all medically infertile.
Yeah, it's pretty weird that they use the word fertility to describe birth rate, because it really isn't accurate. But nevertheless it's the word that organizations use
I'd guess it's because "birth rate" is already used, referring to number of births per 1000 people. Number of children per woman is a different measure.
Overpopulation is the greatest problem for the future. Any country that keeps its population down will anyway be eventually swamped by people from overcrowded countries. The Earth does not have enough resources to constantly find an increasing amount. We can all play the ostrich game and stick our heads in the sand but there is no denying that too many people at present are going without just the bare essentials at 7+ Billion. At 8 Billion, 9 Billion ......... 10 Billion etc. The human race will be in a heap of trouble.
But these countries have below replacement rate fertility, which will present a multitude of problems for them, such as 1 in 4 Japanese will be over 65.
Sure, there are many cities that are overpopulated. But certainly not the world. The entire population of the world could fit comfortably in Texas. And the USA alone wastes enough food every year to feed the world.
It's not a problem of fitting people into physical space. The way we treat and run the planet is not sustainable for a world population approaching 10 billion.
Not comfortably. It would be more densely populated than overcrowded New York City in an area of 630,000 square kilometers. You inadvertently showed how overcrowded the Earth is. With the majority of land uninhabitable or unfit for growing food, plus ever increasing air pollution and destruction of the atmosphere, why shouldn't we shrink our population?
Earth has plenty of resources and living space. What we do have is an overabundance of greed and inequitable distribution of resources thanks to rich, powerful, selfish pigs. And apparently a very effective propaganda campaign that poses life, not greed, as the source of the problem.
Overpopulation is an issue, but Earth is very unlikely to face an ever-increasing amount of people. Birth rates tend to follow a trend as a society modernizes, which includes a phase of the type of population boom we're seeing in many countries right now. There's a lot of variety in future estimates of world population, but they all plateau and fall eventually.
There could be an argument that social/religious attitudes may prevent this, but they would have to be VERY extreme. Bangladesh is at or below replacement rate, as is Iran (a literal theocracy). Mormons are encouraged to have many children, but their fertility rate is still falling. You would need a population following an ideology like ISIS's to get truly unchecked growth.
We may still end up with too many people. We might already have too many people to sustainably support a middle-class lifestyle for all of us. But it's not gonna go up forever. Even DRC will join us in pop decline one day if it can get past all this conflict.
I hardly got any for the longest time and then I got south korea, taiwan, and singapore. Then I just started guessing in Europe and got them all with 0:29 to spare!
My Italian colleague is incensed by this quiz! He is of the belief that a woman only has to sit on a chair - recently occupied by a red-blooded Italian male - to immediately fall pregnant with triplets!
Correlation not causation, I think. Most countries are not run by religious fundamentalists and generally, there are things in the world to keep people busy (one of which is making other humans). Not sure it's the most rigorous set of rules.
Poor countries often have poor education systems and widespread ignorance and religiosity, in addition to low standards of living and bad healthcare systems which all combine to produce very high birth rates. However, in Eastern Europe, while most of the countries are relatively poor and the standards of living are relatively low, they also have reasonably high standards for education and healthcare. This produces a population with a low standard of living that is aware of their lot and less interested in reproducing, subjecting their offspring to the same. At the same time they are more aware of and have better access to effective birth control.
Just a theory. There's also widespread alcoholism, depression, and a lot of economic migration which has led to large gender imbalances.
I've once heard an opinion that communism has something to do with it. It accelerated the migration from rural to urban areas (rural areas in general have higher fertility rates) without raising the standard of living to the same levels as in Western Europe.
Most Eastern European communist countries used to have relatively high fertility rates, especially considering their very high level of education, which is typically associated with declining births. This was largely attributable to great employment security, universal and equal access to free education and healthcare, as well as specific natalist policies. Ordinary people basically had reason to feel safe and confident about their future and consequently about having children. The reason for the subsequent dramatic decline in birth rates is the societal collapse and persistent insecurity that came along with the transition to a free-market economy.
Then, as now, Eastern Europe had some of the world's lowest birth rates.
In some cases, they took extreme action to try to raise them. Romania, for example, banned contraception in 1966. In the subsequent years, more than 100,000 unwanted children were sent to live in cruel, state run orphanages where thousands of them died of neglect.
The legacy of communism is of one of terror, poverty, and death. It has destroyed every country who has tried it.
With the single exception of Romania, and certain restrictions in Bulgaria up to 1973, abortion was legal in every Warsaw Pact country in the post-Stalinist era and provided in public hospitals. Nevertheless, industrialised countries like Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union had a TFR of around 2 all the way to the final years of communist rule, while most industrialised Western European nations had fallen below that. By the early 2000s, after free-market "reforms", that number was closer to 1, while death rates spiked in many of these countries.
Living in Greece, I've met quite a few immigrants who grew up in the former USSR. Pretty much every one I've asked describes having a modest but safe, stable and mostly happy life back then. Their opinion on Yeltsin's rule was usually too sweary to accurately convey in this comment section.
Wasn't there a report recently that said that birth rates were falling basically everywhere outside sub-Saharan Africa? And even in Africa, I'm predicting that sometime in the next few decades birth rates will start falling with more development, increased education, and wider access to birth control.
I'm not sure which report you're referring to, but you are right. Some countries with formerly high birth rates, such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Iran have fallen so much they are now below replacement levels. The only country in the developed world with a birth rate above replacement is Israel.
I wanna say I was talking about this when I wrote that comment (I initially read about it in a BBC article).
This, along with another source from the UN seem to indicate declines in fertility rate in Africa are already happening, it's just taking longer than in other parts of the world.
In less than a century, it's estimated Africa will have 5x the population of Europe. We will start to see the mass emigration into Europe/North America/Arabian Peninsula just to fill the needs of their existing societies. We will all be the same color at some point :)
That does not make me happy and I'm not talking about the colour. Im talking about the culture what these people take with them to Europe. It will ruin the European peoples and their cultures.
It's funny how the technologically advanced countries will die out for failing at the simplest task of natural life, which is to survive and reproduce.
I personally don't mind one bit, I will be long dead and have zero concerns about the world and the changes that affect it.
because all the countries in the Americas are so positive about immigration especially the big one between Mexico and Canada which has never wanted to build walls to stop immigration ever
According to their own studies, around half of the Vatican population have tried real hard with each other and some random dudes in thematic bars in Rome, but the holy spirit has refused to appear. It must be the end of times.
Belarus would be #23 on the list. After that you've got pretty much the rest of Europe, Thailand, and Trinidad and Tobago. Interesting to me if you look at the stats is that if you counted Puerto Rico as a sovereign nation it would show up here between Italy and Spain. But it makes some sense - similar in many ways to the situation I described above for Eastern Europe: poor economy, but relatively high levels of education, yet easy for economic migrants to leave and get jobs elsewhere.
I always wonder if it's fun to live in a bubble of ignorant fear, hissing at people who aren't like you and crying about how hard your life is. Seems like it wouldn't be.
We don't like kids :) On a more serious note, for an "African" country, we do have a relatively high standard of living, a good healthcare system and a good education system. Plus, our women are very career-oriented. The fact that we are quite far geographically from the African continent is definitely a factor. In general, our culture and mentality is much more similar to Europe and to a few Asian countries, than to Africa.
I read it somewhere that by 2030 (?), our population will start declining.
No, of course I don't want an overcrowded country, although the land could support a higher density from living there. But having a constant population is ideal - it feels like there is a loss of culture almost with a decreasing population (by virtue of less people being alive in that culture).
Regardless, I think these concerns matter less than the autonomy of any individual, and some people will think differently anyway.
Mauritius has a population roughly 1/5 of Singapore, with an area roughly 3x the size of Singapore. So, I think they have more than enough area to expand. But, with a lower population at least the impact on nature is smaller. Mauritius has great natural beauty.
It'd sound kind of nice to hear that a country was self-regulating their population size. Or decreasing density.
Unfortunately some of their governments and outside interests seem quite interested in destroying their population's cultures by shipping in third world leeches.
Imagine travelling to Japan, stepping out of the airport, and seeing little Haiti. What a tragedy ):
What? Sweet lord, I hope you get some help. "I'm so sad that these imported infidels are ruining my culture with their own filthy, underdeveloped ways." The world is globalizing. Rapidly. Try learning something new instead of cowering in fear because people from a country that isn't Japan somehow ended up in Japan. Is that really a tragic highlight to you in today's world?
I live in Canada, a country which sees a lot of immigration, very noticeably in the last five years. The only leeches here are the people who are offended that people with different cultures or skin colours have chosen to settle in this beautiful corner of the world :)
wtf. I mean, I'm not, uhhh, disputing it, necessarily. But I am picking my jaw up off the floor. Everything I know about the country (nota bene: I lived there for 5 years), is that the fertility rate among the citizenry is really high, not low...!
Or at least, it used to be. Has it really changed that much in the last 15-odd years?
I was surprised too. The number of births is increasing its because the number of foreigners (mostly single men) is increasing so much that they are bringing the statistic down. Native born birth rates are above replacement but they are a small percent of the population now. The population pyramid there is insane. It's a huge spike in working age men and nothing more.
No surprise about Ukraine. All the men are off fighting and many women have shut up shop. I'm Ukrainian and if I was living there I wouldn't be trying to have a baby while the war is on.
There could be an argument that social/religious attitudes may prevent this, but they would have to be VERY extreme. Bangladesh is at or below replacement rate, as is Iran (a literal theocracy). Mormons are encouraged to have many children, but their fertility rate is still falling. You would need a population following an ideology like ISIS's to get truly unchecked growth.
We may still end up with too many people. We might already have too many people to sustainably support a middle-class lifestyle for all of us. But it's not gonna go up forever. Even DRC will join us in pop decline one day if it can get past all this conflict.
1. Is the country not run by religious fundamentalists?
2. Are there things to do to keep the people occupied?
Only missed Cyprus and Singapore
Just a theory. There's also widespread alcoholism, depression, and a lot of economic migration which has led to large gender imbalances.
Then, as now, Eastern Europe had some of the world's lowest birth rates.
In some cases, they took extreme action to try to raise them. Romania, for example, banned contraception in 1966. In the subsequent years, more than 100,000 unwanted children were sent to live in cruel, state run orphanages where thousands of them died of neglect.
The legacy of communism is of one of terror, poverty, and death. It has destroyed every country who has tried it.
Living in Greece, I've met quite a few immigrants who grew up in the former USSR. Pretty much every one I've asked describes having a modest but safe, stable and mostly happy life back then. Their opinion on Yeltsin's rule was usually too sweary to accurately convey in this comment section.
This, along with another source from the UN seem to indicate declines in fertility rate in Africa are already happening, it's just taking longer than in other parts of the world.
I personally don't mind one bit, I will be long dead and have zero concerns about the world and the changes that affect it.
North and South America has taken in boatloads of immigrants for hundreds of years and they haven't fallen to pieces.
I read it somewhere that by 2030 (?), our population will start declining.
Regardless, I think these concerns matter less than the autonomy of any individual, and some people will think differently anyway.
Unfortunately some of their governments and outside interests seem quite interested in destroying their population's cultures by shipping in third world leeches.
Imagine travelling to Japan, stepping out of the airport, and seeing little Haiti. What a tragedy ):
UAE??
UAE??!?!?
wtf. I mean, I'm not, uhhh, disputing it, necessarily. But I am picking my jaw up off the floor. Everything I know about the country (nota bene: I lived there for 5 years), is that the fertility rate among the citizenry is really high, not low...!
Or at least, it used to be. Has it really changed that much in the last 15-odd years?