Regarding the 2100 population estimate, no doubt many people will say it's unrealistic.
I think it's possible.
Consider that the population of Kinshasa has increased by 100x in the last 70 years!
Would it be that surprising if it increases by another 5x in the next 70 years?
Of course making predictions about the far future is difficult. Fertility in most places outside of sub-Saharan African has collapsed. Perhaps this trend will reach Congo as well.
There's also a pretty high chance that AI kills us all in the next couple decades, or things get so weird that the entire concept of humanity is altered.
But the normie take is that Kinshasa won't be able to sustain its population because they are too poor. You could have said the same thing any time in the last 50 years and you'd have been wrong every time. The amount of calories available per person in Africa has increased by massive amounts.
can you expand on the "pretty high chance that AI kills us all in the next couple decades"? i'm curious how you go about estimating a likelihood for something like that
My take is that these projections are overshoots for a few reasons. First, the relatively extreme growth of these african metropolises compared to the growth of their countries as a whole is due to internal migration (because fertility is always higher in the countryside). The marginal value of moving to the capital will decrease as urban populations increase, which means the value proposition of migrating somewhere else instead becomes more reasonable. Ecological and infrastructural precarity also matter as these extremely underdeveloped megacities continue to grow. Finally, the most motivated and capable migrants move first; the first waves of internal migration cannot be extrapolated indefinitely for that reason.
These projections always assume little to no change in terms of birth rate. Realistically, the more Kinshasa develops, the lower the birth rate gets. That's how it goes anywhere in the world.
Considering that Tokyo has 40 million, a city with 80 seems kind of crazy - even assuming the UN growth estimate is accurate, I think a space problem would hinder development more than anything else (maybe it will be divided into two?)
Does anyone know if that figure is just for Kinshasa or if it includes the Brazzaville piece as well? If it's just the DRC piece I have questions based on geography and it only being able to grow out in 360 degrees.
Looking at the source, that is just Kinshasa. Brazzaville is it's own entry. According to the source there will be 2 Malawian cities with 40 million people. The entire country population is 21 million in it right now and Blantyre one of the cities that is predicted to get there has 800k according to a 2018 census. Now that seems ludicrous.
I think it's possible.
Consider that the population of Kinshasa has increased by 100x in the last 70 years!
Would it be that surprising if it increases by another 5x in the next 70 years?
Of course making predictions about the far future is difficult. Fertility in most places outside of sub-Saharan African has collapsed. Perhaps this trend will reach Congo as well.
There's also a pretty high chance that AI kills us all in the next couple decades, or things get so weird that the entire concept of humanity is altered.
But the normie take is that Kinshasa won't be able to sustain its population because they are too poor. You could have said the same thing any time in the last 50 years and you'd have been wrong every time. The amount of calories available per person in Africa has increased by massive amounts.
In conclusion, 83 million is totally possible.