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2008 Election Polling Biggest Misses

Can you name the states where the polls missed the final margin by over 5 points? -Polling source comes from Dave Leip's Atlas. Includes latest 3 polls per state averaged. DC included, but ME and NE congressional districts omitted. See comment below for additional help.
+ indicates pollsters overestimated Obama's final margin
- indicates pollsters underestimated Obama's final margin
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Cbud
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Last updated: May 28, 2026
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First submittedMay 28, 2026
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Polling miss
State
+10.9
Arkansas
+9.6
Alaska
+9.6
North Dakota
+8.6
Louisiana
+5.5
Iowa
+5.2
New York
+5.2
Wyoming
-5.8
Massachusetts
Polling miss
State
-6.1
Nebraska
-6.5
Nevada
-9.5
Maryland
-9.8
Rhode Island
-10.9
D.C.
-11.3
Hawaii
-12.4
Idaho
-13.0
Vermont
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1 Comments
+1
Level 47
May 28, 2026
If you are confused, the pluses and the blue shade indicate the polls were more favorable to the winner (Democrat Barack H Obama) than the actual results. Minuses and the red shade indicate the polls were more favorable to the loser (Republican John S McCain) than the actual results. Hope this clears up any issue!