Judgement, Reasoning and Decisions (10)

Inductive reasoning: ___-___ reasoning, from specific observations to broader ____, basis of ___ investigations

Deductive reasoning: ___-___ reassoning, from the more general to the more ___

Conclusions we reach with inductive reasoning are ___ - but not ___ - true, a number fo factors can contribute to the strength of an inductive argument: ___ of observations, ___ of observations, ___ of the evidence

Heuristics: people use ___ experience to guide ___ behavior, often use shortcuts to help them reach conclusions ___

Availabiltiy heuristic: events that are more ___ remembered are judged as being more ___ than events that are less easily ___, can mislead us when less ___ occurring events stand out in our memory

Classic Study: asked participants what they think is more prevalent in English, words that begin with the letter r or words in which the r is the third letter, 70% of participants responded with the former even though false, but those words were easier to ___, creating the false belief that these words are more ___

Illusory correlation: strong ___ between two events appears to exist but ___

Representativeness heuristic: the probability that A is a member of a class B can be determined by how well the properties of A ___ the properties we usually associate with class B

Base rate: relative ___ of different classes in the population

Confirmation bias: ___ looking for information that ___ to a hypothesis and ___ information that argues agaisnt it

Myside bias: tendency for people to evaluate evidence and test their hypothesis in a way that is ___ towards their own opinions and attitudes

Validity: syllogism is valid when its ___ follows logically from its two ___, validity is not ___

Mental model: specific ___ represented in a person's mind that can be used to help determine the ___ of syllogisms in deductive reasoning

Conditional syllogisms have two premises and a conclusion like categorical syllogisms but the first premise has the form ___ ... ___

Syllogism 1 (modus ponenes): A --> B, A, therefore ___, is valid

Syllogism 2 (modus tollens): A ---> B, NOT B, therefore ___ ___, is valid

Syllogism 3: A --> B, B, therefore A, ___ valid

Syllogism 4: A --> B, NOT A, therefoer NOT B, ___ valid

Utility theory: people are basically ___; if people have all of the relevant infroamtion, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected ___ (outcomes that achieve a person's goals), problem; you are more likely to be killed in a car accident than in a plane crash but after 9/11 a decrease in air travel and an increase in driving occured

People inaccurately predict their emotions, think negative outcomes will have ___ negative influence than they actually have / positive outcomes

Incidental emotions are ___ ___ by having to make a decision, person's general disposition is something that happened ___ in the day or the general ___

Sadder-but-wiser hypothesis: sadness has been found to be associated with careful, deliberate ___ making and a reduction of ___ arising from heuristics

Incidental emotions affect decision: depending on which movie clip the participants saw (sad vs. disgust vs. neutral) they rated differently the price for which they would be willing to sell a set of highlighter pens (disgust and sadness were willing to sell for ___ than the neutral group)

Decisions can depend on the ___ within which they are made

Framing effect: decisions are influenced by how the ___ are ___