This chart shows the expected number (statistical expectation) of streak freezes, as well as the probability of getting at least one streak freeze, after X days of extending your streak provided you are eligible for a freeze (i.e. have a streak of at least 7 days).
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# of days Expected # of freezes Chance of at least 1 freeze
1 0.02 0.02 2 0.04 0.0396 3 0.06 0.058808 4 0.08 0.07763184 5 0.1 0.096079203 6 0.12 0.114157619 7 0.14 0.131874467 8 0.16 0.149236977 9 0.18 0.166252238 10 0.2 0.182927193 11 0.22 0.199268649 12 0.24 0.215283276 13 0.26 0.230977611 14 0.28 0.246358059 15 0.3 0.261430897 16 0.32 0.276202279 17 0.34 0.290678234 18 0.36 0.304864669 19 0.38 0.318767376 20 0.4 0.332392028 21 0.42 0.345744188 22 0.44 0.358829304 23 0.46 0.371652718 24 0.48 0.384219663 25 0.5 0.39653527 26 0.52 0.408604565 27 0.54 0.420432474 28 0.56 0.432023824 29 0.58 0.443383348 30 0.6 0.454515681 31 0.62 0.465425367 32 0.64 0.47611686 33 0.66 0.486594522 34 0.68 0.496862632 35 0.7 0.506925379 36 0.72 0.516786872 37 0.74 0.526451134 38 0.76 0.535922112 39 0.78 0.545203669 40 0.8 0.554299596 41 0.82 0.563213604 42 0.84 0.571949332 43 0.86 0.580510345 44 0.88 0.588900138 45 0.9 0.597122136 46 0.92 0.605179693 47 0.94 0.613076099 48 0.96 0.620814577 49 0.98 0.628398286 50 1 0.63583032 51 1.02 0.643113714 52 1.04 0.650251439 53 1.06 0.65724641 54 1.08 0.664101482 55 1.1 0.670819453 56 1.12 0.677403064 57 1.14 0.683855002 58 1.16 0.690177902 59 1.18 0.696374344 60 1.2 0.702446857 61 1.22 0.70839792 62 1.24 0.714229962 63 1.26 0.719945363 64 1.28 0.725546455 65 1.3 0.731035526 66 1.32 0.736414816 67 1.34 0.741686519 68 1.36 0.746852789 69 1.38 0.751915733 70 1.4 0.756877419 71 1.42 0.76173987 72 1.44 0.766505073 73 1.46 0.771174971 74 1.48 0.775751472 75 1.5 0.780236442 76 1.52 0.784631714 77 1.54 0.788939079 78 1.56 0.793160298 79 1.58 0.797297092 80 1.6 0.80135115 81 1.62 0.805324127 82 1.64 0.809217644 83 1.66 0.813033291 84 1.68 0.816772626 85 1.7 0.820437173 86 1.72 0.82402843 87 1.74 0.827547861 88 1.76 0.830996904 89 1.78 0.834376966 90 1.8 0.837689426 91 1.82 0.840935638 92 1.84 0.844116925 93 1.86 0.847234587 94 1.88 0.850289895 95 1.9 0.853284097 96 1.92 0.856218415 97 1.94 0.859094047 98 1.96 0.861912166 99 1.98 0.864673923 100 2 0.867380444
