Nuclear club
First published: Wednesday February 19th, 2025
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Nuclear club
Which countries will have nuclear weapons within the next ten years?
I understand that predicting which countries will acquire nuclear weapons in the next ten years is speculative, but at least we can analyse trends based on current geopolitical situations, technological capabilities, and international treaties.
My money on following four countries:
1. Iran. The country has advanced nuclear technology and has enriched uranium beyond civilian needs. Although it denies seeking a bomb, political shifts or the collapse of the JCPOA (nuclear deal) could push it toward weaponization.
2. Saudi Arabia. Saudi leaders have hinted that if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, they will follow. They have strong ties with Pakistan, which already has nuclear weapons, raising concerns about potential technology transfers.
3. South Korea. While it relies on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, North Korea's growing nuclear arsenal has reignited debates about South Korea developing its own deterrent. Public and political support for this is growing.
4. Japan has advanced nuclear technology and large plutonium stockpiles. If regional threats (like North Korea and China) worsen and U.S. protection weakens, Japan could develop weapons relatively quickly.
If the Saudis followed through on their threat to arm themselves once Iran does, that will be unusual