Will Trump Realise His Foreign Policy Expansion Goals?

On January 20, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. He plans to implement a fundamental policy change in the White House. In recent weeks, Trump has talked about controversial topics – he wants to join Canada as the 51st state, regulate the Panama Canal, and buy Greenland.

In this blog, we’ll take a closer look at his statements. Will he actually follow through on all of this? And what strategy lies behind it?

USA and Canada are known for their close and historic relationship. Trump uses this to propose making Canada the 51. US State.

It is not clear whether it is a joke or serious. On a press conference, Trump ruled out using the military for this purpose, however he could use "economic force". He continued:

Justin Trudeau, prime minister of Canada, announced that Canada has no intention to become the 51st state of the US

According to Leger, a survey institute, only 13% of Canadians support to join the USA, 82% are against that. Angus Reid talked from an oppose of 90%. Another survey found out that one-third of Canadians surveyed believed Trump is serious about having Canada join the U.S. Three-in-five Canadians said they don't trust Trump to hold his word that he wouldn't use military force to make Canada part of the U.S, the Angus Reid poll found.

This question was asked to Canadians and Americans:

In Canada, more than half of the people surveyed think Trump’s comments are just “trolling.” In the U.S., more people aren’t sure what to think about his intentions.

Some experts believe Trump isn’t serious and just wants to stir things up. Others think he’s using this as a distraction – to take attention away from bigger problems like inflation, immigration, or the war in Ukraine. There’s also the possibility that he wants to shift focus from the economic fallout caused by his trade policies, like the 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, which would have hurt both sides.

Another idea is that Trump wants to show the world how powerful the U.S. is – as if to say, “We can even annex our neighbor if we want to.” It’s part of his usual style of projecting strength and dominance.

But there are doubts about how serious this idea really is. One big reason? If Canada joined the U.S., it would probably become a “blue state.” A lot of Canadians aren’t as conservative as Trump’s Republican base, so this wouldn’t exactly help his party.

Since his election victory, US President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken of Greenland becoming part of the United States. Greenland is mostly covered in ice and the largest island in the world is inhabited by around 57,000 people. The resource-rich and strategically important territory in the North Atlantic has belonged to Denmark for over 600 years, but enjoys extensive autonomy. Greenland has so far renounced complete independence.

On December 22, Trump postet on Truth Social:

Trump offered to buy Greenland. Again, because he already tried it in 2019, in his first presidency.

After Trump’s press conference on January 7, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen pointed out that Greenland’s Prime Minister, Múte Egede, has been very clear about this – there’s a lot of support among the people of Greenland for the idea that Greenland is not for sale and never will be in the future.

Egede, the island´s prime minister, said on January 10: "We don’t want to be Danish, we don’t want to be American, we want to be Greenlandic".

Trump didn't exclude military use to gain control over the island. He could considerate also to use the aspirations for independence and then pressure them economically and politically.

The ways would be very controversial or even illegal.

Greenland is an island rich in natural resources, including iron, zinc, copper, gold, graphite, uranium, and rare earth elements, all of which lie beneath its surface.

However, the island’s strategic position might be an even bigger reason for Trump’s interest. Due to climate change and the melting glaciers, new shipping routes are becoming accessible. For example, the Northwest Passage could open up, creating shorter trade routes between North America, Europe, and Asia. China hopes to establish an "Arctic Silk Road," while Russia is already increasing its presence in the region. Controlling Greenland would give the U.S. a significant advantage over these competitors.

Greenland is also crucial for U.S. military strategy. The island hosts an early warning system for ballistic missiles because it lies on the shortest flight path between Europe and the United States. This makes it a key part of U.S. defense infrastructure.

Trump criticised the fees to use the Panama Canal as „exorbitant“ and „ridiculous“.

The USA built the Canal over 100 years ago and after years of own management, they gave it to Panama in 1999.

Now, Trump criticises two points:

1. The fees are two high

Trump claimed that the fees are unfair for the US. Mulino, President of Panama, rejected this statement, saying that all countries are subject to the same fees. These are set by the Panama Canal Authority.

2. „China is operating the Panama Canal“

At his second inauguration address, he claimed:

The waterway is operated by the Panama Canal Authority, which also sets the transit fees. This state agency is committed to neutrality and must allow ships from all countries to pass under the same conditions. Fees are calculated using a detailed table that takes into account factors such as ship type, size, and cargo. The prices are considered in line with market standards, with larger cargo ships paying several hundred thousand US dollars for transit. In 2023, the canal authority generated approximately 3.3 billion dollars (3.2 billion euros) in transit fees.

Mulino said to the argument with China [Not exact wording]:

"The canal is and will remain Panama's property, and its administration will continue to be under Panamanian control, out of respect for its permanent neutrality," he stated. "There is no nation in the world that interferes in our administration."

While the canal remains under Panama's control, the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal, located at either end of the waterway, have been operated by the Hong Kong-based company "CK Hutchison Holdings" since 1997. This firm is owned by a wealthy Hong Kong family and is not directly controlled by the Chinese government. However, there are concerns that Beijing may seek to expand its influence over ports and shipping routes through private Chinese companies.

All in all, Trump wants to create a nationalistic policy, providing advantages for American goods and companies. With fees from imports, he tries to make America stronger.

Mexico

In Mexico, Trump plans to fight against the drug cartels. He didn´t exclude special forces to get rid of them.

Europe

Trump urged for 5 percent of GDP spending on the military in the alliance NATO. No country in the defence alliance has reached this yet. He has a skeptical position to NATO.

Ukraine

Trump has hinted that he might provide less support for Ukraine or even seek an end to the war through negotiations with Russia.

His critical stance on NATO could have an impact on alliance unity, especially if he questions US aid or the mutual assistance article.

Donald Trump’s ideas about expanding U.S. influence - making Canada the 51st state, buying Greenland, or taking control of the Panama Canal - have caused a lot of discussion. Some people think he is just trying to get attention or distract from bigger issues, while others believe he is serious about these plans.

However, these ideas are not very realistic. Canada has made it clear that it has no interest in joining the U.S., Greenland’s leaders have firmly rejected any sale, and the Panama Canal is fully controlled by Panama. Trump’s comments might also create tensions with other countries.

In the end, whether he truly means it or not, Trump’s statements show his focus on making the U.S. more powerful. This will likely continue to be a key part of his presidency.