Between Two Giants

India is one of the countries that everyone wants to have on their side. Even the 2 superpowers, Russia and the USA. The rivalry between these countries is currently almost the same as it was in the Cold War. Now that there are two full-scale wars raging in 2 highly militarized and hostile parts of the world. Both, directly or indirectly involving Russia and the US. The wars have lasted for years because there is somewhat of a balance between the two sides. With the major forces being Russia, China and the Arabs VS USA, NATO, and US puppets. And this balance is crucial for the prevention of an even larger war. The only thing that enforces these powers to not start World War 3 is the military balance between the nations.

India's Potential Impact 

Now, suppose India joined Russia. Now, as India is the 4th most powerful country in the world, the balance will be lost, and Russia will be the stronger side. This would lead to the involvement of India in the 2 wars which would probably mean victory for Russia and even Palestine. If India joined the US's side, it would be beneficial for the US in the same way it would be for Russia.

Historical Context

We could also see the effect of balance in WW2. The Germans invaded Poland as they were stronger than their potential enemies. So, now that there was no balance, Germany invaded Poland, and the war started. Everything was quite steadily balanced as Germany, Japanese Empire and Italy were allied and the USSR, Britain, France were allied too. Now, the Axis powers were a little more powerful as France was under a severe attack and had almost lost and Britain was busy helping France. The USSR was not enough to fight the Axis powers. But when the 353 aircrafts attacked the U.S Pacific fleet, the US joined the war and that led to the loss of balance. Eventually, as the Allies were more powerful, it led to their victory.

Post-WW2 and Cold War

Now, after WW2, the cold war erupted. The tensions between the US and USSR were at their all-time-high. And that led to the biggest rivalry in the history of civilization (except for the Coke-Pepsi war).

Modern Balance of Power

So, if we look at this 'Balance' concept from today's perspective, we may consider the US, its puppets and NATO as THE WEST and Russia, China, Arabs, and other Russia supporters as THE EAST, we will have the same scenario as WW2. (Also, it is important to know that BRICS cannot be considered as NATO's counter alliance as BRICS is an economic alliance built to combat the US dollar while NATO is mostly a military one (built to combat the Russian and Chinese military)).

India's Strategic Position

So, now, if India joins any side, we shall consider that side as the Allies (for reference). Because if the world's 4th strongest military joins them (like the US joins the allies), they will get a huge power-up, which would probably lead to their victory. And a huge war would probably erupt. Which would cause a huge loss of life. That's why India's 'Indecisiveness' when choosing sides is quite good FROM MY PERSPECTIVE. Also, I hate the fact that when it's India not choosing sides, it is called 'indecisiveness' and when Switzerland does the same, it's called 'neutrality'.

Russia? 

Currently, India’s best friend is Russia. There is an exceedingly long history to this friendship. It all started when India got independence. The USSR was one of the earliest countries to recognize India’s independence. Even at that time, the USSR was so powerful that it recognizing India’s independence indirectly meant that India was officially free from British rule. This was the start of the Indo-Russia relationship.

Early Relationship

Since then, the USSR started growing closer to India and eventually got pro-India. As the other option went closer to the US, the USSR's cold war enemy. USSR has also used its Veto power in India’s favor. But what is Veto? Well, in the UN, there is a particularly important wing called UNSC (UN Security Council). There is a council of powerful nations that vote to take important decisions that could make or break a country. Veto is the power to say no to a statement in the UNSC. Only 5 permanent members of the council have the power to Veto.

Veto Power 

Suppose there is a war threatening world peace. The countries came to the council as a resolution to stop the war. Members of the UN vote in favor or abstain from voting for the resolution. And regardless of the votes, if any of the 5 countries Veto it, it is not adopted. So, after independence, Kashmir joined India, and Pakistan was against it. They wanted Kashmir, and they used their friend, the USA, to internationalize this problem. Pakistan went to the council, and a resolution was passed. It was voted by the US, UK, France (China was not a member back then). It was about to be passed. But the USSR vetoed it which led to Kashmir being an integral part of India. If not for the USSR, the Kashmir issue would have become international, and the USA would have helped its friend to make matters even worse for India.

Support During Conflicts

Again, in 1961, during the annexation of Goa, Portugal went to the UN to stop the war. But, again, USSR helped India by Vetoing. Later, a huge milestone in the Indo-Soviet ties is during the 1971 war. Pakistan was being supported by the USA and UK. During the war, USA and UK sent huge fleets of battleships to encircle India. But again, the USSR came to save the day. It sent its fleet from Vladivostok to help India, and the Western fleets retreated. This led to India’s victory, one of the largest surrenders in history (93k Pakistani troops surrendered to India), and the birth of a new nation, Bangladesh (even though this new nation is growing closer to Pakistan and betraying India).

Development Assistance 

Let's talk less about wars and speak of development. In the 1950s India was still a very poor and undeveloped country lacking infrastructure. The USSR helped us rise from our backwardness and helped us develop our infrastructure. While the west was looking for profit with schemes that profited themselves more than they helped India. For example, USSR helped India build the Bilhai Steel Plant. Meanwhile even Germany offered India to build the Morokela steel plant. Both the countries agreed to give India line credit. But here comes the difference. Germany quoted to give credit at the rate of 6% and repayment in 3 years along with the management fee of .25%. But the USSR quoted giving credit at just 2.5%, 12 years repayment, and free management costs. This made India move closer to its true friend, the USSR.

Continued Support 

Later, USSR has always been helping India in military, Infra and economic development. Which is clearly seen in the famous missile, BrahMos, built with an Indo-Russian coalition. Also, India is playing a key role in indirectly helping Russia by buying Russian oil despite Western sanctions. Also, Russia has been helping India in its space program.

Challenges and Revival 

But the Indo-Russian ties were getting weaker during the 1990s as India declined to some offers while China accepted them. So, Russia and China became good allies. This was a huge setback to Indo-Russian relations. But a former KGB agent became the president of Russia and revived the relationship. Now, because of Vladimir Putin, Indo-Russian ties are thriving.

Conclusion 

Therefore, there is one thing that Indians should accept: Russia has played a significant role in making India the powerful country that it is today. Indians should be thankful to Russia. That is why I personally support Russia more than the US.

USA? 

Currently, the US is the most important ally that will help India fight China. USA is also India’s largest trade partner, with trade worth 120 billion $. USA also supports Israel, which is one of India’s closest allies. It is also investing a lot in India’s economy. It is currently pro-India and is an important member of the QUAD alliance.

Economic and Military Support 

The US is helping India develop by investing in infrastructure. But things were not the same in the 20th century. The US was a close ally of Pakistan and defended Pakistan many times. During the 1971 war, USA, with its ally, UK, encircled India using its Navy, to help Pakistan win the war. They even put heavy sanctions on India.

Changing Relations 

Eventually, the situation changed. USA started supporting India. The cooperation was a huge blow to China, which was trying to establish its huge influence in Asia. Indo-US relations also mean better relations with Europe and South America. This leads to more investments and support. USA is also helping India in its military expansion and space program.

Recent Tensions 

But tensions rose since 2021, and due to constant wars and some minor racist movements in USA, the ties got weaker. But the US is still a major ally of India. It is supporting India in its anti-terrorism movements and helping India to reduce the growth of China.

The Choice 

Currently, India’s EAM, Dr. S Jaishankar, is giving witty replies to the reporters and interviewers who ask him the ‘Russia or US?’ question. The answers he gives are key to the sustainment of the neutrality of India. This helps India get benefits from both the sides. But we all know that Russia is our time-tested friend, and the US is quite an opportunist. And in the world of geopolitics, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests. Despite this, Russia has always been helping India develop and asking almost nothing, except friendship in return. Well, if you were the Prime Minister, which side would you choose?