2024 Predictions - Halfway

Anything in bold has happened or is 99% likely to happen.

99: The US election will take place - Very likely

99: World Population increases - Yes, obviously

99: I make at least one more quiz - Just hit 800 quizzes!

95: A natural disaster will claim the lives of at least 100 people - Noto earthquake killed 299, various wildfires in US

95: Donald Trump secures the Republican nomination - This happened this week

95: Joe Biden secures the Democrat nomination - Unbelievably wrong! Joe Biden has dropped out of the race!

90: Rishi Sunak will call an early general election in 2024 - Election called on May 22

90: Xi remains as leader of China - V Likely

90: Charles III remains as King - Even with cancer diagnosis, treatment is going well

90: Modi remains as Indian Prime Minister - Won election, but lost majority

87: Saudi Arabia spend over $70 million on a single footballer - Not yet, but still plenty of time

85: There will be a feel good story at this Summer's Olympics in Paris - Let's hope so!

85: Erling Haaland wins the Premier League Golden Boot - Haaland scored 27 goals in 31 matches to win a 2nd Golden Boot in England

85: Deadpool 3 is in the top 3 grossing films of the year - TBC, but this looks likely

82: Mark Zuckerberg remains CEO of Meta - V Likely

80: Manchester City win at least one trophy - Premier League secured in May

80: Elon Musk still CEO of Tesla - V likely

80: Vladimir Putin is still president of Russia - V Likely

80: Either Pogacar or Vingegaard wins the Tour de France - Currently, Pogacar is 1st and Vingegaard is 2nd at 5"03 behind. Remco Evenepoel in 3rd is 7"01 behind Pogacar.

75: Volodymyr Zelensky is still president of Ukraine - Elections in Ukraine likely won't be held until the war concludes

75: Britain returns the Parthenon marbles to Greece be it on a loan or permenantly - This is probably the worst one so far, doesn't seem likely

75: I reach 2.5 million takes - Currently at 2.3 m, still very possible

75: Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one major tennis championship - He just won Wimbledon, defeating Djokovic in a repeat match of last year

75: Mexico elects its first female President - Claudia Sheinbaum was elected with 59.75% of the vote

75: The Doomsday Clock either remains the same or moves forward (closer to midnight) - It was kept at 90 seconds to midnight

74: Sam Altman still OpenAI boss - He rejoined the board of directors in March

70: Ursula von der Leyen still European Commission president - She recently was re-elected

70: Sadiq Khan secures a historic 3rd term as London Mayor - Khan won 43.8% of the vote and secured re-election

70: At least one major streamer increases their prices - Peacock and Paramount have increased their prices

70: Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister of the UK - Labour won 411 seats in a landslide majority

70: Euro price remains below the dollar for the entire year - Only peaked at 0.94 EUR to 1 USD

68: Right wing parties dominate the EU elections

65: Manchester United lose a game by 5 or more goals - I was nearly right in May as Crystal Palace beat Man Utd by 4 goals!

65: Kylian Mbappe plays for France in the Olympics and the Euros - Euros yes. Olympics? No.

65: A famous TV show is rebooted - Does Dora count? The Office reboot has been long rumoured but has only been confirmed this year

65: Someone wins a historic Oscar - Billie Eilish became the youngest ever 2 time Oscar winner

65: Erik Ten Haag is sacked as Manchester United boss - Genuinely thought this would have happened by now

65: Oppenheimer wins Best Picture - Should have put this way higher

62: Some kind of ceasefire or end to the Israel Hamas conflict - Let's hope so

60: Rafael Nadal plays his final competitive tennis match

60: Max Verstappen wins F1 2024 - Verstappen is 84 pts ahead of Norris in 2nd

60: Netflix price stock hits a new peak - We are awfully close at the moment, Netflix stock is hovering around 630USD, and its peak was 682 USD

55: At least one G7 country enters a recession at some point during the year - TBC

55: X (Twitter) declares bankruptcy - Who knows

52: The Conservative Party changes their leader - Sunak is stepping down as leader, so this is almost certain

50: I hit 3 million takes - As said earlier, currently at 2.3 m

50: A major assassination of a political leader occurs - Wow, this was a lot closer than I expected. Trump was almost assassinated last week at a rally by Thomas Matthew Crooks.

45: The highest grossing film is a superhero film - No, it'll probably be Inside Out 2.

42: US inflation is above 5% at any point in the year - 3.5% in March is the highest it has been

40: AMC declares bankruptcy - Could still happen

40: China's economic growth is below 3% - 4.7% growth in April-June Quarter

40: The Russia/Ukraine conflict comes to an end - Unlikely

40: Venezuela invades Guyana - Unlikely, but still possible

35: A new AI program takes the world by storm - Not sure on this one

35: A big Hollywood film is delayed by more than 3 months - Thunderbolts was delayed to May 2025

35: The association football transfer record is broken - Probably won't happen, Mbappe joined Real Madrid for free

30: Argentina dollarises its economy - Not likely

30: A country changes their official name - Possible but remains unlikely

27: Female pop stars out-earn the men in concert tours - Taylor Swift's Eras Tour will make this a slight tossup

25: Bitcoin goes below $20,000 - Very unlikely

24: A new country wins the Euros - Nope, Spain won their 4th Euro

20: Netherlands announces a Nexit referendum - Geert Wilders' party did well in the Dutch elections, but a Nexit referendum remains hugely unlikely.

20: Netanyahu is still Israeli Prime Minister - Seems likely he will remain but his situation is volatile

20: Rishi Sunak loses his seat in a general election - Sunak held onto his seat comfortably

15: A nuclear weapon is deployed on a major city - Hopefully unlikely

10: The US suffers 1,000 deaths or more in a conflict - Very unlikely, the US military rarely reports more than 1,000 deaths in a year overall (ie. considering all casualties)

9: 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth - 7.5 in Japan

7: There is a temperature of 45°C or higher somewhere in the UK - Hottest day in UK is today! 31.2°C, which means 45 is exceedingly unlikely.

6: Hamas fully captures Israel - Very unlikely, in fact, the opposite is much more probable.

5: Kyiv falls to Russia - Very unlikely

5: Someone wins 8 or more Olympics Gold Medals in Paris - Unlikely

4: Usain Bolt's 100m record is beaten - TBD

3: Ncuti Gatwa announces he is leaving Doctor Who - Unlikely

2: I reach 4 million takes - I wish!

0.5: Alien or extraterrestrial life is discovered - Probably not

0.1 A major asteroid kills hundreds of people - No

0.1: England wins the Euros (just kidding, if I was being realistic I'd put it around 20%) - Not a bad prediction, England reached the final, falling short to Spain.