My Predictions for the 2026 Midterms
Last updated: Wednesday May 20th, 2026
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Note
This is not built on bias. This is built from data and polling. No one can truly predict elections so don't take this to heart.
Gubernatorial Elections
Before we start in the 2026 Gubernatorial Elections, it is important to note that 14 states will not be holding these elections to elect their governor. 8 are held by Republicans and 6 are held by Democrats, giving Republicans a +2 advantage in this election.
The Breakdown
Safe States
Democratic
Republican
- California
- Colorado
- Hawaii
- Illinois
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- New Mexico
- New York
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
These will push the Democratic Party to 16 Governors.
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Idaho
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
-South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Wyoming
This will push the Republican Party to 16 Governors.
Likely States
Democratic
Republican
The Likely States in this election for the Democratic Party will include:
- Minnesota
This brings Democrats to 17 Governors
The Likely States in this election for the Republican Party will include:
- Florida
- Nebraska
- New Hampshire
- Texas
- Vermont
This brings Republicans to 21 Governors
Lean States (Excludes Swing States)
Democratic
Republican
Democrats will gain the following:
- Arizona
- Maine
This puts Democrats at 20 states
Republicans will gain the following:
- Alaska
- Ohio- Kansas (Flip)
- Nevada
This puts Republicans at 24 states
Republicans now have 25 state governors. The best Democrats can do is tie.
The Contested States
Democratic
Republican
Democrats are projected to win in:
- Georgia (Flip)
- Iowa (Flip)
- Wisconsin
Republicans are projected to win in:
- Alaska
- Oregon (Flip)
- Michigan (Flip)
Final Notes for Gubernatorial Elections
Republicans are projected to win more states than Democrats in the 2026 Midterms. 5 states will flip, three for Republicans and two for Democrats. The two surprising states that will flip are Iowa (R + 13 in 2024) and Oregon (D + 8 in 2024).
Note that New Hampshire and Vermont are Democratic when it comes to electing Presidents, Senators, and House Members but are Republican when it comes to Governors. This has been going on for quite some time. (They also elect Governors every 2 years)
This was made from current notes from Wikipedia and factors the popularity of the candidates.
Senate Elections
Before we start the Senate Elections, please note that some states do not have the elections for this cycle. Democrats hold the edge over Republicans with 34 seats while Republicans have 31. Republicans only need 50 seats as Vice President JD Vance is able to break any Senate Ties.
Safe States
Democratic
Republican
Democrats are on track to win the Senate elections in the following states:
- Delaware
- Colorado
- Illinois
- Massachusetts
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- Oregon
- Rhode Island
- Virginia
This puts Democrats at 43 Seats
Republicans are on track to win the Senate elections in the following states:
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Idaho
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Mississippi
- Montana
- Oklahoma
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- West Virginia
- Wyoming
This brings Republicans to 43 Seats
This leaves no party at an advantage as both Democrats and Republicans are at 43 seats. This leaves 14 states left.
Likely States
Democratic
Republican
Democrats are on track to win the Senate elections in the following states:
- North Carolina (Flip)
- Minnesota
This puts Democrats at 45 seats
Republicans are on track to win the Senate elections in the following states:
- Florida
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Nebraska
- South Carolina
This will push Republicans 2 seats away from gaining the majority with 48 Seats
This now leaves Democrats trailing Republicans as they recieve 45 seats against Republicans 48 seats. This is still a close election though and Democrats can still pull ahead.
Lean States
Democratic
Republican
Democrats have the slight edge in the following states:
- Georgia
- New Hampshire
- Maine (Flip)
This brings Democrats to control 48 seats
Republicans have the slight edge in the following states:
- Michigan (Flip)
Republicans now have 49 seats
Republicans now control the Senate through the Vice President J.D. Vance.
The Contested Ones
Democratic
Republican
Democrats are able to win:
- No contested states for Democrats
- Alaska
- Ohio
- Texas
Final Notes for Senate Elections
This is my unbiased thought on how the Senate election will go. This is backed by Wikipedia and polls. Republicans have 51 Seats and Democrats have 49.
Republicans win the Senate as of April 27, 2026, based upon polling and further research.
House Elections
I am unable to predict the House Elections as multiple states are going through redistricting, however, with the Virginia Supreme Court blocking the Virginia redistricting proposal, the Louisiana v. Callais ruling, and Tennessee successfully redistricted & other Republican states soon to follow, Republicans are set to be the favorites to win the House of Representatives. This will still be a close election if no other state changes their map, however that will be unlikely as many Republican states are looking to erase their singular Democratic seat like in Tennessee
Final Predictions
Governor
Senate
House
L 24 - 26 R
L 49 - 51 R
I predict, based on new legeslation, that the Republican Party will maintain control of the House.
L ? - ? R
Please note that this blog is meant to state my predictions based on polling. Do not lose your mind over these predictions as all of these elections haven't happened yet. The first two are built on data and several types of polls conducted from several popular polling sites. The House of Representatives Predictions are built on the Louisiava v. Callais ruling and the latest news of the attempts of mid-decade redistricting that are occuring in at least 10 US States so far.
If these predictions are correct, this will be a rare case that the political party of the president maintains control in both the House and Senate.
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