The Quizmaster's 2024 Predictions

I wonder how these ones will turn out. It's not going to be fun trying to learn Nusantara instead of Jakarta. QM, do you have a thing with big pumpkins, like are you going for the world record or something?

When you say you still moderate quizzes nearly every day, does that mean 88% chance you moderate quizzes nearly every day of 2024, or 88% chance you continuel moderating quizzes by the time 2024 ends?

Also, what's the highest # of daily takes JP has seen thus far?

It is a bit late here and I misread that as "Taiwan invades China mainland". Perhaps I really should fix my sleep schedule :P

Interesting. There are some new ones in this lot that catch my eye

Cyprus, country of Europe : negative... LOL !!!

Hahaha England will possibly come in second again...

Can someone explain the numbers before the predictions?

Love reading these as always Quizmaster! What are you predictions for the Indian election this year? I'd personally give Modi an 85% chance of winning, barring something catastrophic happening I'd say he looks unstoppable.

Would also like to hear the likelihood of Vietnam joining the 100 million club given how close it is.

What are QMs political views? I cant tell

What do you think chances are of Palestine getting recognised by the UN and or Jetpunk? Same question for Western Sahara and South Ossetia.

ahahaha max winning the f1 championship should be a lot higher

Vietnam reaching 100 mil / change in 100 mil countries (by population decrease, new countries, or population increase) would be interesting to add here.

Did you use a DALL-E for the thumbnail? A Google Lens search reveals only this post as exact result..

"A geomagnetic storm greater than the Carrington Event (1859) takes place"

In December 2023 we had "one of the most powerful solar flares recorded since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began." This might indicate that the chance of another Carrington event is slightly higher than 0.2%. I hope not of course.

Source: https://www.universetoday.com/164879/we-just-had-the-strongest-solar-flare-in-the-current-solar-cycle/

Most of these seem well reasoned and I agree with your assessment.

I disagree with Elon Musk being richest person though.

Please don't ban me if gambling isn't permitted here, but I'd gentleman's wager $35 to each other's favorite charity on it.

Just about a week after this was released, it already looks like that 20% prediction about the US bombing Yemen turned out to be wrong. Granted, we still don't know the death toll, but if it escalates any further, it'll be a lot more than 10.

It’s annoying how replies to your comments don’t show up as notifications, could you change this QM?

Hey, uh, I just noticed that this doesn't show up on the 'Official Blog' page. Might wanna look into it?

Where would one get uranium prices in the first place?

I see little reason to think that the S&P 500 will decline. Of course, it's very easy to say that what is happening will keep happening, and if knowing what the market will do were this easy then everyone would do it. I will say there's a 100% chance of the S&P 500 closing the year higher than it started. I will also say there is a 0% chance of Trump winning a majority of the popular vote this year. He lost by 7 million votes in 2020.

Based on the upcoming Olympics, the Usain Bolt thing may be true. ( Not getting my hopes up since he's kept the record for 15 years though. )

Why is Cyprus not considered part of Europe? Culturally, they are very similar to Europe, and the whole of the island is EU territory as well as a member of the EU. The website of the European Union officially calls Cyprus part of Europe. The country of Cyprus itself calls itself part of Europe, and geopolitically can also be considered part of Europe. Do you really want to oppose the EU and Cyprus?

Well, Biden just stepped down from the presidential race (endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in his place), so him getting at least 270 electoral votes is out the window.

Biden aged badly

Capitals almost aged well with Nusantara

England Euro 2024 haha

Let's see how we're going, 5 weeks out from the end.

Biden did not get votes.

The US did bomb Yemen with 40 deaths so far.

There wasn't a name change on the CpTOW.

Moana 2 is likely to be the highest grossing film of the year, and even if it isn't, Inside Out 2 or Deadpool & Wolverine are there.

GPT 5 could possibly be out by December (?)

Verstappen will likely win F1, but Norris or Leclerc could maybe win too