The Quizmaster's 2025 Predictions
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First published: Tuesday January 7th, 2025
First published: Tuesday January 7th, 2025
+74
Welcome to the fourth annual Official Predictions™ of the JetPunk quizmaster, in which this flawed prognosticator tries to make sense of the world by guessing what the future will hold.
Because prediction is hard and I'm still no good at it, I've included a percent chance that I think the event will happen. This will also help me to grade my predictions at the end of the year. Note: I will be the sole judge of these predictions.
Also, let it be known that I am "shooting from the hip" here. I did not consult any prediction or betting markets because that's no fun. I don't think I can beat the market anyway.
Okay, caveats accounted for, here they are, in order of probability, my official 2025 predictions!
99 World population increases in 2025
93 Xi still leader of China
93 Donald Trump President of the U.S. on December 31
90 The number of U.S. federal government employees decreases in 2024 (not counting military troops)
90 Kim Jong-un still leader of North Korea
85 Vladimir Putin still President of Russia
85 The Conservative Party wins the most seats in Canadian elections
80 U.S. government deficit to GDP ratio declines (trailing three months, Dec 2025 v. Dec 2024)
80 More JetPunk quizzes taken in 2025 than 2024
80 Average home price in the U.S. increases during 2025 according to Zillow
70 U.S. official unemployment below 5% on December 31
70 Ceasefire in the Israel/Gaza war as of December 31
70 Volodymyr Zelensky still president of Ukraine
65 Elon Musk is world's richest person on December 31
65 Ceasefire in the Ukraine/Russia war as of December 31
60 LeBron James active on an NBA roster
60 Kier Starmer still Prime Minister of the U.K.
55 There is a new oldest person in the world
55 The JetPunk daily trivia quiz is taken at least 10,000 times in a day at least once
50 BlueSky traffic in December 2025 down 80% from December 2024 levels
BlueSky is a Twitter alternative that many people have moved to because of opposition to Elon Musk. I give it a relatively high chance of collapsing, not because of politics, but because previous efforts to overthrow Twitter have largely failed (Mastadon, Threads).
45 Euro worth less than $1 at end of year
35 TikTok banned for at least 90% of Americans as of December 31
30 U.S. inflation (trailing 12 months) above 5%
30 "RealID" required at U.S. airports as of December 31
As a response to September 11, the U.S. government passed the "Real ID Act" in 2005 requiring people to have more secure ID's to fly. The implementation of this act has been delayed several times, and with better technology (such as facial recognition) it's mostly unnecessary anyway. Nevertheless, the requirement is supposed to come into force for real this time on May 7th, 2025. Hopefully, it gets delayed again or, better yet, canceled.
25 Edward Norton wins an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor
I thought he was great in "A Complete Unknown". And Hollywood loves a redemption story.
25 Waymo robotaxis open to the public in Seattle as of December 31
25 The Trump admin makes a proposal for a manned Mars program
20 Nvidia is world's most valuable company on December 31
20 Max Verstappen wins the F1 championship
20 Nvidia stock falls by 50% or more
15 Detroit Lions win the Super Bowl
15 Seattle has at least one day of 100 °F or higher
15 New record set for world's heaviest pumpkin
12 Russia captures Kyiv at some point during the year
10 Legislation is passed which eliminates or merges a U.S. Cabinet level department
10 JetPunk is the world's largest quiz site as of December 31 according to SimilarWeb
We are currently #2 with 7 million monthly users as opposed to 13 million for the other site.
10 British pound worth less than $1 at end of year
10 A Western country locks down due to bird flu
8 The world record in the marathon is broken with a time under 2 hours
7 More than 1.5 million JetPunk quizzes taken in a single day in 2025
7 China invades Taiwan mainland
7 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth
7 Elon Musk net worth at least $1 trillion on December 31 according to Forbes
4 Denmark agrees to sell Greenland to the U.S.
3 At least one Global Position System satellite is destroyed
2 Nuclear detonation kills at least 1000 people
RIP Kelvin Kiptum
#capitalizetheP
Now everyone has gone crazy because it wasn't included
I tried searching for him on Google and it appeared the same.
lol
60% does seem to me a very low predicted chance for him to still be Prime Minister though. He has an absolutely huge and secure majority in parliament and his health seems fine. I’d put it at +95%.
That's my prediction
(lol idek what the name is)
it's clear enough without that of course, but it looks off that you have it for some and not others
Dec. 31 [also never going to happen].
I was hoping Eagles would play Lions in the playoffs; it would have been a challenge. But you all got dispatched easily.
We beat you this year but it just wasn't the same.
Besides if that s something to be positive about - Mastodon is still at over 3x usage than before Twitter aquisition despite the boom fading
Can we make some more globally relevant additions to these erudite but clearly Western-centric predictions please? :)
We could save money by IP banning non-western countries, but we don't because we view it as a charity.
I'm not advocating for anything, just saying that the response may not adequately respond to the user.
Include the entire Canada fiasco with multiple provinces threatening to leave (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, British Columbia, and Quebec)? They plan to do something in 2026
Probability of the US recognizing Somaliland
Roblox successfully getting sued
Bougainville gets independence from Papua New Guinea
suggestion: “One or more shooting incidents makes major American headlines on January 1st”