The Quizmaster's 2026 Predictions
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First published: Thursday January 8th, 2026
First published: Thursday January 8th, 2026
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Welcome to the fifth annual Official Predictions™ of the JetPunk quizmaster, in which this flawed prognosticator tries to make sense of the world by guessing what the future will hold.
Because prediction is hard and I'm still no good at it, I've included a percent chance that I think the event will happen. This will also help me to grade my predictions at the end of the year. Note: I will be the sole judge of these predictions.
Also, let it be known that I am "shooting from the hip" here. I did not consult any prediction or betting markets because that's no fun. I don't think I can beat the market anyway.
Okay, caveats accounted for, here they are, in order of probability, my official 2026 predictions!
99World population increases
93Xi still leader of China on December 31
93Chicago July 2025 estimated population lower than 2024
91Donald Trump still President of the U.S. on December 31
90U.S. deficit to GDP lower in 2026 fiscal year than 2025
85Miguel Díaz-Canel still leader of Cuba
80U.S. murders decline by 10% or more annually, based on most recent numbers shown on Real-Time Crime Index.
As of writing, murders in the U.S. are down an incredible 20% over the previous year. I see no reason why this trend wouldn't continue.
70The JetPunk daily trivia quiz is taken at least 10,000 times in a day at least once
65More JetPunk quizzes taken in 2026 than 2025
My "spidey-sense" says no because the web is dying, but we've never really had a down year.
60Elon Musk becomes a trillionaire at some time during the year according to Forbes
60Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House in the midterm elections
60Ali Khamenei still Supreme Leader of Iran as of December 31
This is a tough one. On one hand, the base rate of regime change is incredibly low. On the other hand, there are protests happening right now. I've even seen a rumor that Khamenei (age 86 years) is already gone. This prediction could be outdated very soon.
55Number of murders increase in New York City
The current mayor has promised to close a major jail, and is extremely soft on crime. On the other hand, nothing ever happens and the overall trend nationwide is down.
54Bronny James active on an NBA roster as of December 31
50Venezuela holds elections and elects a non-socialist as President
50Ceasefire in the Ukraine/Russia war as of December 31
50There is a new oldest person in the world
50The U.S. recognizes Somaliland
50The price of silver is below $50/ounce on December 31
50Lebron James active on an NBA roster as of December 31
40The composition of the U.S. Supreme Court changes
35Kamala Harris formally announces she is running for President
30Novak Djokovic retires
30Google is world's most valuable company on December 31
30Norway records the most total medals at the Winter Olympics
30Oklahoma City Thunder repeat as NBA champions
30Taylor Swift announces she is pregnant
25A city run grocery store is open in New York City on December 31 and is open to all NYC residents without restrictions
20Minnesota governor Tim Walz faces criminal indictment related to Medicaid fraud in his state
20An openly AI-created song reaches the top 10 of the U.S. pop charts
20Michigan wins the NCAA men's basketball tournament
20Max Verstappen wins the F1 championship
20New record set for world's heaviest pumpkin
20Democrats win a majority in the U.S. Senate in the midterm elections
18U.S. inflation (most recent available 12 months) below 0% as of December 31
Before you scoff, month-over-month inflation was negative in the last print. Housing costs, a major driver of inflation, are trending down.
15The U.S. records real GDP growth > 5% in the average of the four most recent quarters we have data for as of December 31
The U.S. economy has been strong as measured by GDP growth, growing at 4.3% in the last quarter,and 3.8% the one previous. AI evangelists have predicted that advances in AI could lead to 10% annual growth in the near future. I think they are wrong, but I'm not 100% sure. A 5% growth rate would be extraordinary, even higher than 1999 when it was 4.8%
14France wins the World Cup
12More than 1000 Russian troops within 10 km of Kyiv city center at some point during the year
12Alberta votes to secede from Canada
A lot has to go right for this to happen. First, organizers have to gather 177,000 signatures to get the issue on the ballot. Then, there has to be a referendum. I'd expect that opponents would launch legal challenges to prevent or delay a vote. Finally, people have to vote to secede. Note that even if all this happens, it doesn't necessarily mean Alberta will even try to secede, let alone that they'd be allowed to.
11JetPunk is the world's largest quiz site as of December 31 according to SimilarWeb
10A country is added, removed, or has its name changed on the JetPunk Countries of the World quiz
8An athlete beats Usain Bolt's 100 meter dash time of 9.58 at the "Enhanced Games"
8British pound worth less than $1 at end of year
8United States advances to quarterfinals of the World Cup
79.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth
6China invades Taiwan mainland
6England wins the World Cup
6Denmark agrees to cede territorial claims to Greenland
-∞Cyprus added to the Countries of Europe quiz
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