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Top 10 Most Populous U.S. States in 2070

What will be the most populous states in the year 2070?
Based on a simplistic model by the Quizmaster
Quiz by Quizmaster
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Last updated: April 27, 2019
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First submittedApril 27, 2019
Times taken19,291
Average score70.0%
Rating4.11
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Population
State
62.1 mil
Texas
54.8 mil
California
40.4 mil
Florida
22.5 mil
New York
22.0 mil
Georgia
Population
State
21.5 mil
North Carolina
16.9 mil
Arizona
14.8 mil
Pennsylvania
14.2 mil
Washington
13.8 mil
Virginia
cpgatbyu
+10
Level 84
Apr 27, 2019
Polynomial extrapolation is generally considered to be bad, isn't it? And is there any intrinsic reason to believe that population growth would be polynomial rather than exponential or some sort of modification thereof?
Quizmaster
+1
Level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
Agree, but I was pleasantly surprised by how reasonable the estimates seem. A straight exponential would seem to be worse. Maybe you can suggest a more sophisticated function, and I could do a curve fit on it?
Quizmaster
+2
Level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
Also, why is polynomial regression considered bad? We are only using a 2 degree polynomial so there's not a high risk of overfitting.
TWM03
+1
Level 67
Jun 13, 2019
Because increase in population tends to be proportional to the population, unless some other important factors change over time.
Jerry928
+8
Level 75
Apr 28, 2019
The 50-years-hence estimates come with a massive margin of error and I suspect that the 2070 figures will end up to be very different from the numbers calculated here. But I might be wrong, and there is one good way to check this out (apart from waiting 50 years). I'd suggest to Dan that he takes the population data from 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1969, then uses his polynomial tool to "predict" the population fifty years later, in 2019. If that exercise produces a result close to the real present-day population, then he might be onto something!
Quizmaster
+11
Level ∞
Apr 28, 2019
As a wise man once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". No doubt these predictions will be wildly inaccurate! Maybe the next great entrepreneur will be born in Oregon or New Hampshire and totally reshape migration patterns. Maybe the U.S. will cut off immigration (or increase it). Maybe someone will discover a cure for aging. Who knows?
tshalla
+5
Level 74
Apr 28, 2019
Good suggestion. Anyway, real world stuff determines migratory patterns. (Jim Crow, the rise and decline of the Fordist mode of production, and the increasing availability of home air conditioning would be three pretty disparate 20th Century U.S. examples.) That climate change may influence migration in the next fifty years is a pretty good guess, but generally, hindsight works better.
Demogaffe
+1
Level 35
Jan 24, 2021
Estimates as recently as the turn of the century have turned out to be way off in many states...they had Washington DC down in the 400K range by the early 2020s, and instead its nearly 700K.

They also didn't anticipate the North Dakota oil boom...

mrnafe
+3
Level 81
Apr 28, 2019
Ah it's always nice to speculate how these things might progress
OfficerDibble
+20
Level 79
Apr 28, 2019
That model is indeed simplistic - it hasn't even produced some of the most obvious ones like Puerto Rico and Great Britain.
NoahFulbrook
+4
Level 36
Jun 13, 2019
what?
blay
+2
Level 51
Apr 28, 2019
So the largest 10 states account for the majority of the population. Urbanisation is crazy.
hunjtg
+5
Level 70
Apr 29, 2019
I just did what Jerry928 suggested, without knowing his suggestion. Except I used data 1910,1920,1930,1940,1950 and 1960 predicting 2019.

I tried using linear quadratic and cubic estimation. Non of them is much better than the others, however the cubic the worst.

Here the result of the quadratic (and the reality):

1 California 57.0 ( 1 39.8 )

2 New York 26.1 ( 4 19.9 )

3 Texas 22.9 ( 2 28.7 )

4 Florida 22.5 ( 3 21.3 )

5 Ohio 19.0 ( 7 11.7 )

6 Illinois 17.4 ( 6 12.8 )

7 Michigan 16.1 ( 10 10.0 )

8 New Jersey 14.0 ( 11 9.0 )

9 Pennsylvania 13.3 ( 5 12.8 )

10 Virginia 10.4 ( 12 8.5 )

13 Georgia 8.9 ( 8 10.5 )

15 North Carolina 7.7 ( 9 10.4 )

I think it is quite bad. 8 among the first ten was already there in 1970, however there were no chance to predict the other two.

jetpunker33
+1
Level 28
Sep 3, 2022
theres absolutely no way that North Carolina will drop to the 15th biggest state. it's insane how many people are moving there and not nearly as many people are moving out
NINJAQKk
+3
Level 68
Jun 13, 2019
Watch out Cali, Texas is coming for you :)
FlabberBapper
+4
Level 72
Jun 13, 2019
In about 50 years, but yeah.
SWATkun
+4
Level 60
Jun 13, 2019
Read the states as Cities and so only got New York 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
rawe
+2
Level 66
Jun 13, 2019
Tried South Carolina with 5 seconds remaining, the answer was North Carolina lol
shortyoh
+2
Level 80
Jun 13, 2019
Just wait until people realize there's no water in Arizona....

Or that Florida might be too expensive to live in, etc...

Grapefruit74
+2
Level 29
Jun 15, 2019
Texas will have higher population then California???
undeadwarrior
+1
Level 63
Jun 19, 2019
If California hasn't annexed itself and declared itself its own country by then...
NKH
+3
Level 65
Mar 5, 2021
I think it is more likely to be Texas that has declared itself independent...
RKS
+1
Level 66
Jan 17, 2020
Hey man, just wanted to let you know this quiz got me exactly to 10.000 points! Happy Friday :D
marez
+2
Level 61
Apr 2, 2020
Coronavirus will reduce the numbers.. especially Florida.
bmartin04
+3
Level 41
Dec 2, 2020
Well, you were sure right!
Jato
+2
Level 68
Jul 28, 2021
There is no way Texas will have that many people in just 50 years, because of, you know, climate change. It’s already extremely hot here in the summer already as the temperature has reached the triple digits numerous times. Won’t be surprised if some large Texas cities become completely uninhabited by 2070.
EvanAviator
+3
Level 58
May 13, 2022
people live in arizona
nerdalert
+1
Level 83
Mar 16, 2023
And yet, the countries with the most population growth are mostly along the equator.
rhinobaby
+1
Level 62
Mar 23, 2023
The US population is barely expected to grow--and has in fact been shrinking were it not for immigration. Considering the openly racist and violently anti-immigrant republican party, this quiz is absolutely ridiculous. There are countless flaws but I'll point out a few basic ones: Arizona cannot support 17 million people. The Colorado river will not exist by 2070 based on today's water consumption let alone another TEN MILLION residents. Florida will be mostly underwater and what freshwater aquifers remain will be flooded with salt water. I could go on but...a really horrible quiz.
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