That's an exorbitant amount of time. I'm pretty sure a quick typist could type all 50 states twice in that amount of time. That's what I did to get New Hampshire. Started at Alabama and worked my way down alphabetically.
How about all quizzes being so short that only the top 2% typists can actually finish it on time, that way those of us in pursuit of knowledge can relax and take up gardening instead?
If I don't know answers I don't guess 100 things to be "right". I just skip to the next one and click Give Up. You can't learn anything if all you remember is typing everything that came into your head.
This group is changing steadily. Missouri is pretty safe for the GOP - even in Trump's worst polling periods it never looked like going blue. Virginia is increasingly behaving as a blue state, not a swing state. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, could become more of a swing state and North Carolina looks to be following Virginia's trajectory. Meanwhile I think Iowa could follow Missouri and move towards becoming a more GOP-leaning state.
North Carolina was won by Obama in 08, but since then has mainly gone GOP in national and local races. It seems like it was more of a fluke than anything.
Indiana did the same thing with Obama in 08. I'd still say NC is a swing state though. Enough large cities to be close to 50/50. The rural and urban highly contrast each other.
This is the fifth election in which the Democrat won the popular vote but a different candidate won the presidency. (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and now 2016. 1824 Republicans weren't around but the other elections the Republican won)
The state is solid red, though, outside of NoVA, Richmond, and some parts of the Norfolk metro area. As those areas have become more densely populated it turned more and more purple, and is now starting to become blue. But before 2008 Virginia had voted for the Republican candidate for president in every single election going back to 1952 except once ('64).
Going by the most recent polling data, the 10 most competitive states this year look to be (in descending order):
Ohio
North Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Iowa
Texas
Arkansas
New Hampshire
Arizona
and Pennsylvania
I'm not really sure I believe that Arkansas poll. If that was a fluke, then Nevada would slide in to the 10th most competitive spot. Would be pretty crazy if Trump lost in Arkansas. But the fact that Texas and Georgia are competitive this year is also bad news for him. Those have traditionally been Republican strongholds and also where they get a substantial chunk of their electoral college votes.
None of the other states are surprising. My home state of Virginia is leaning more blue all the time. Happy to see that sanity is prevailing there.
It's like how South Carolina in 2016 had a couple polls showing Hillary winning there and she lost soundly on election night. There's always going to be some funky polls that are head-scratching to look back on.
Saying Florida isn't a swing state anymore is a rushed conclusion in my opinion, I'd wait for the 2022 midterms and 2024 election to see. For all we know, it could have been a fluke because of the much-more-Republican-than-usual Cuban vote in Miami-Dade. Other than that, I'd agree.
Yeah, it is well-known that Cuban-Americans are repelled by the notion of "socialism," and the GOP has been selling the notion that the current Democratic party is a Marxist cabal. Now that Biden is actually in office and the Democrats control the Senate, I think many people will see there is not going to be a socialist revolution. Biden's stimulus plan seems very popular and he has, at least in the early going, avoided engaging in the cultural wars and general spirit of mania that characterized the previous administration. I think it will bring back some voters. I also don't think anyone has any idea what the Republican votership will look like without Trump. He's such an anomaly. Will his fanbase follow an "establishment" candidate? If a Trump surrogate wins the nomination, can he inspire the same fervor without Trump's unique personal appeal? Seems impossible to tell, and four years is a long time.
I think the 2022 midterms kind of confirmed the point. Florida, while not likely to be solid Republican as far as raw margins (R+10 or more), is going to be comfortably Republican in 2024 regardless of who the nominee is. It's just zooming to the right the same way Colorado rocketed to the left since the Obama years.
New Hampshire was solidly Republican pre-WW2 except for Wilson and FDR, and again until a blip in 64 for LBJ. After that it was Republican again until Clinton, went for Bush 04 but not Bush 08, and stayed Dem since with a VERY narrow gap in 16. It also has a GOP trifecta at the state level. It couldn't be more of a swing state!
Minor nitpick, New Hampshire went for Bush (R) in 2000, flipped to Kerry (D) in 2004, and has gone Democratic ever since. McCain was the Republican nominee in 2008, not Bush.
Minnesota will never vote red (at least on a national level) anytime soon—the Democratic majority nearly always overpowers the Republicans, no matter how small the margin.
I'm guessing that when this quiz updates later this year, New Hampshire will be gone from the list, and Iowa and Ohio are likely going to move several places down the list. They're not really swing states anymore.
Florida will drop way down. Iowa and Ohio might drop off. I'm surprised no Michigan, but they'll probably be on here. And basically all of these shifted red this year, so the difference for PA and Wisconsin will go down.
Congress still exists though, it's just the presidency which is inherently going to be 100% controlled by a certain party. Also, cities have people of all political beliefs, an overwhelming majority might vote a certain way but popular vote just means all of their votes are counted. Trump just won the popular vote so clearly it doesn't automatically make Democrats win. Right now the electoral college isn't even proportional which is why the concept of swing states exists and both minority and majority votes in safe states can be considered wasted.
In short, it was known that the system isn't perfect, but was established as a last resort as all other proposals were rejected.
Popular vote was rejected by slave states and less populous states (which would be outcompeted by northern states with significantly more suffrage and more populous states, respectively).
A congressional vote was considered, but ultimately rejected as it undermined the concept of separation of powers (that the three branches of government should not be influenced too much by each other).
In the end, most states were okay with the idea of delegates proportional to representation in Congress, and voting done by a group of basically random people was chosen so that the electors would not be too influenced by congress or (theoretically) party politics, and so they could not extensively collude with each other over multiple elections.
Basically, the people in charge (the founding fathers) were afraid of giving too much power to the popular vote, thinking that the masses (white, male, property owners) were too emotional and prone to 'tyranny' towards the wealthy elite. (Back then, people felt tyranny could come from above or below in the social classes.) So they gave the direct power to elect the president instead to an electoral college, a group of elites who could be more trusted to maintain the social order.
While yes, the margins were significantly better for Republicans in 2024 than in 2020 in significantly blue areas, I would not go as far to say there is an underlying trend here. A lot of the increase in Republican vote share in blue areas was due simply to Democrats not turning out. And while yes, there are minor trends indicating Republican movement in these states, they are not large enough to flip the states. Margin comparison is important in seeing trends, but the most accurate way to see state-by-state trends is to compare the state margin difference to the national margin difference. In New Jersey's case, the shift was about 10 percentage points. At the time of writing this, however, the national environment has Trump up by 2%. When compared to Biden's 4% win, this makes the national trend R+6. New Jersey's overall trend would therefore be four percentage points better for Republicans in 2024 than in 2020.
I will add a caveat to this however: In New Jersey, at the time of writing this, Trump increased his vote share by about 100,000 votes, while Harris lost Biden's vote share by about 400,000. While yes, Trump gained support, the much more immediate reason for the reduction in Democratic support is the reduction in the number of Democrats supporting Harris. This can be chalked up to a number of factors, but it clearly points to one: the Republican gains in blue states aren't really due to underlying trends, they are due to Democrats not turing out to vote. I will also add that New Jersey's population increased by a little over 400,000 people since 2020, and with a 2020 turnout of ~72% (considering that number doesn't change too drastically among Republicans), it would be expected that republicans gain about 100,000 votes ( .72*.41*400,000). So, when all is said and done, Republicans maintained the number of expected votes they had while Democrats drastically reduced theirs.
While yes, margins can show trends, I would not read in too heavily into them. The only instance where I would use margins is between nonconsecutive cycles with similar national environments (for instance, 2020 vs. 2012 is a good comparison due to both having D+4 national environments). I will always stand on this: partisans will use whatever data supports their arguments to show that their side is gaining popularity and the other side is losing popularity. Political systems are generally set up in such a way, and I know this may be cynical, that nothing substantial changes for lower-class people while people with money are able to influence policy; party changes happen solely on whichever party is in power and if the current state of the country (economy, social issues, etc.) is beneficial to them. And while yes, there are social distinctions to be made between parties, when all is said and done, state by state differences matter far more than whatever national party is in charge.
This is a convincing and well-written analysis, and a rebuttal to the idea that Republicans are gaining Democrat votes in New Jersey. However, I think such a huge number of Democrats not turning out could still support for the "writing on the wall" claim. That might rebound though, depending on how the next four years go.
Unrelated, I would say there have been substantial changes for lower-class people as a direct result of government policies in the last few decades — like Obamacare and the war on drugs — despite wealthy influences being present that whole time. Maybe I just have a lower threshold than you regarding what amounts to "substantial", though.
I definitely would agree that if Democrats don't change anything in their electoral playbook, they could see further decline due to people not turning out, which would increase Republican vote share. I would agree that Obamacare has had a substantial impact on lower-class people, especially people in the South. But recently (and I think this is a big reason for the Democratic decline in states like Ohio, West Virginia, and Iowa), national Democrats have not enacted such policy, and nor have Republicans. And while I will not depreciate the amount of help Obamacare has done, many of the loosening of regulatory measures, along with the reduction in the national corporate and income tax rates have negated any loss for wealthy corporations or people, effectively being a net bonus for the richest while appeasing the partisan base.
As an independent voter who has disliked the choices is the last two elections and look forward to the clean slate arriving in the 2028 election, I am surprised by the significant drop in the popular vote for the Dems. Granted there was a red shift generally, but Harris (at last count) got 7 million votes fewer than Biden in 2020, while Trump got about 2.5M more. The conspiracists on the right will beat the drums again about mysterious votes in 2020, but I am curious to hear from any Dems here as to why there was such a large drop. A lack of enthusiasm for Harris who was thrust into the campaign at the last minute is an obvious initial possible reaction, but any other factors?
I'm not sure if he'll run again, but Trump will be eligible again for 2028. You can't serve more than two consecutive terms as US president, but you can serve more than two terms.
Non-consecutive terms still limit a president to two terms max. There is a caveat that allows a president to serve up to 10 years--he or she could serve the last 2 years or less of a president who died/became incapacitated, then be eligible to serve two full future terms.
Even if Trump could find a way to get the 22nd amendment appealed and run again in 2028, I don't think he'd go for it. He's too old. He will be 82 by the end of his run provided he lives that long.
My honest recommendation is to not search for answers on Jetpunk, and to instead seek answers from publicly available, reputable sources with a history in good political analysis. (Not that I have any recommendations for what sources those could be.)
My experience on the Internet so far has been that the loudest among my fellow Harris voters scapegoat whichever demographic they think didn't "turn out enough" (even demographics that would not have made up the difference anyways), OR, less often, scapegoat Harris herself for objectively untrue accusations (like claiming she didn't mention her policy proposals — she did). I think you'll get closer to the actual answer if you look for professional political analysis rather than voterbase opinions.
Obviously I'm not going to rely on a quiz site for definitive answers, just curious what some folks here might think. As for "professional political analysis", I think we got a good dose of how much that is worth is terms of objectivity and accuracy leading up to this election. Not talking just about the pollsters - I honestly don't think that the most visible political analysts (left or right) who are mainly based in major media centers and Washing ton DC have much of a clue anymore what the rest of the country actually thinks.
Even then I still think you'll get something *closer* to the truth from people who have training in this stuff. Left and right-leaning analysts do seem quite biased, though there are some non-partisan analysts too. Pew Research Center jumps to my mind, though I'm not sure how much they delve into politics or if they have anything substantial written about this election yet.
I do think it's fair to wonder what people are thinking, though. I'm glad you aren't taking these replies as gospel.
Brit who has been following the election for months
Here are my guesses as to why the Dems and Harris underperformed:
• Biden dropped out way too late not giving Harris enough time to really assert herself in the election campaign
• Trump's campaign strategy of going on podcasts and targeting young male voters seems to have paid off
• (Some) Americans are still resistant to having a female as their chief in command
• Some key demographics just didn't turn out for the election and those who did were much more likely to switch to Trump than Harris (Arab Americans, Hispanics etc)
• Harris simply give didn't enough clear cut policies that resonated with voters (besides abortion). Trump's anti immigration and protectionist messaging is something that many voters (particularly in the key swing states) agreed was an issue.
• Incumbent governments are losing around the world due to the shocks of COVID and the Ukraine war. These stoked inflation and voters seem to really hate inflation.
I think this is a pretty fair assessment. Generally speaking also, a good economy favors the incumbent and a poor economy favors the challenger. People still feel a crunch as wages haven't climbed as fast as inflation which bodes poorly for the incumbent.
The final point is Harris' general unlikability. As a brit, i'm not sure if you know that she ran for president in 2020, but she was so unpopular as a candidate that she dropped out of the primary before the first votes were even cast. Then as VP, she had a very low favorability rating. People just didn't like her. I don't think there are enough Americans who wouldn't want a female president to move the needle, but there were obviously a lot of Americans who didn't want THIS female president. I think her gender had very little to do with it.
Thank you, buck1017, for your comments. Fairly or not, incumbents get the credit or the blame for the economy. Examples are Carter in 1980 and George Bush Sr in 1992 who had the highest approval rating ever after the first Gulf War and then lost to Clinton when the economy turned sour (although plenty of other factors at work in both cases).
Also, re my point above about a clean slate in 2028, I think that Harris' failure to gain any traction in the 2020 primaries, as you point out, and her loss to Trump will be too much for her to overcome in 2028 when others like Newsome, Whitmer, et al may well throw their hats in.
I think the moment I knew Trump was probably going to win this year was when he survived that assassination attempt back in July. He gained some popularity from that and it also made Elon Musk publicly endorse him, which ended up being pretty important. And as much as I was rooting for Harris to win I agree that her campaign was pretty weak and came in way too late for most people to really go for her. I guess now we'll just see how the next four years play out.
I would be slightly sceptical over your point regarding her likeability. As soon as she entered the campaign, her net favourability actually skyrocketed from -15 up to zero, which is 5 points above Trump's favourability. I am aware that she ran in 2020 pitching herself as a left leaning Democrat which for some reason fails to land with voters and Democrats alike.
Regardless of your political beliefs, I think we can all agree that it's hilarious that Trump will be the one handing out the World Cup trophy in 2026.
I would interpret "vote differential" as the difference in vote count, not the difference in percentages. Maybe nobody else has this problem, but to me the question is asking something different.
Ohio
North Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Iowa
Texas
Arkansas
New Hampshire
Arizona
and Pennsylvania
I'm not really sure I believe that Arkansas poll. If that was a fluke, then Nevada would slide in to the 10th most competitive spot. Would be pretty crazy if Trump lost in Arkansas. But the fact that Texas and Georgia are competitive this year is also bad news for him. Those have traditionally been Republican strongholds and also where they get a substantial chunk of their electoral college votes.
None of the other states are surprising. My home state of Virginia is leaning more blue all the time. Happy to see that sanity is prevailing there.
It only varies from the popular vote like 5% of the time anyway.
Any system where you can win an election without receiving the most votes is fundamentally flawed
In short, it was known that the system isn't perfect, but was established as a last resort as all other proposals were rejected.
Popular vote was rejected by slave states and less populous states (which would be outcompeted by northern states with significantly more suffrage and more populous states, respectively).
A congressional vote was considered, but ultimately rejected as it undermined the concept of separation of powers (that the three branches of government should not be influenced too much by each other).
In the end, most states were okay with the idea of delegates proportional to representation in Congress, and voting done by a group of basically random people was chosen so that the electors would not be too influenced by congress or (theoretically) party politics, and so they could not extensively collude with each other over multiple elections.
We happen to have maintained the system since.
Unrelated, I would say there have been substantial changes for lower-class people as a direct result of government policies in the last few decades — like Obamacare and the war on drugs — despite wealthy influences being present that whole time. Maybe I just have a lower threshold than you regarding what amounts to "substantial", though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice" - verbatim
My experience on the Internet so far has been that the loudest among my fellow Harris voters scapegoat whichever demographic they think didn't "turn out enough" (even demographics that would not have made up the difference anyways), OR, less often, scapegoat Harris herself for objectively untrue accusations (like claiming she didn't mention her policy proposals — she did). I think you'll get closer to the actual answer if you look for professional political analysis rather than voterbase opinions.
I do think it's fair to wonder what people are thinking, though. I'm glad you aren't taking these replies as gospel.
Here are my guesses as to why the Dems and Harris underperformed:
• Biden dropped out way too late not giving Harris enough time to really assert herself in the election campaign
• Trump's campaign strategy of going on podcasts and targeting young male voters seems to have paid off
• (Some) Americans are still resistant to having a female as their chief in command
• Some key demographics just didn't turn out for the election and those who did were much more likely to switch to Trump than Harris (Arab Americans, Hispanics etc)
• Harris simply give didn't enough clear cut policies that resonated with voters (besides abortion). Trump's anti immigration and protectionist messaging is something that many voters (particularly in the key swing states) agreed was an issue.
• Incumbent governments are losing around the world due to the shocks of COVID and the Ukraine war. These stoked inflation and voters seem to really hate inflation.
The final point is Harris' general unlikability. As a brit, i'm not sure if you know that she ran for president in 2020, but she was so unpopular as a candidate that she dropped out of the primary before the first votes were even cast. Then as VP, she had a very low favorability rating. People just didn't like her. I don't think there are enough Americans who wouldn't want a female president to move the needle, but there were obviously a lot of Americans who didn't want THIS female president. I think her gender had very little to do with it.
Also, re my point above about a clean slate in 2028, I think that Harris' failure to gain any traction in the 2020 primaries, as you point out, and her loss to Trump will be too much for her to overcome in 2028 when others like Newsome, Whitmer, et al may well throw their hats in.