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Top 10 U.S. Swing States in the 2024 Election

What are the 10 states that had the smallest vote differential between Democratic and Republican candidates in the 2024 election?
EV = electoral votes
Quiz by Quizmaster
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Last updated: November 21, 2024
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First submittedNovember 7, 2016
Times taken70,536
Average score80.0%
Rating4.52
1:30
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Difference
EV
State
0.8% R
10
Wisconsin
1.4% R
15
Michigan
2.1% R
19
Pennsylvania
2.2% R
16
Georgia
2.8% D
4
New Hampshire
Difference
EV
State
3.1% R
6
Nevada
3.4% R
16
North Carolina
4.2% D
10
Minnesota
5.5% R
11
Arizona
5.7% D
13
Virginia
101 Recent Comments
+6
Level 78
Nov 7, 2016
That's an exorbitant amount of time. I'm pretty sure a quick typist could type all 50 states twice in that amount of time. That's what I did to get New Hampshire. Started at Alabama and worked my way down alphabetically.
+12
Level ∞
Nov 7, 2016
You're right. I forgot to change the default. It's now 90 seconds.
+12
Level 70
Nov 8, 2016
How about all quizzes being so short that only the top 2% typists can actually finish it on time, that way those of us in pursuit of knowledge can relax and take up gardening instead?
+5
Level 67
Nov 22, 2024
Those of you in pursuit of knowledge would know the most swingy states and easily be able to type 10 states in 90 seconds
+4
Level 76
Jul 20, 2018
I finished it with 14 seconds remaining, and my average typing speed is 38 wpm. Probably 96% of people could easily finish this quiz.
+2
Level 76
Nov 21, 2024
oh my god
+1
Level 72
Apr 17, 2025
What are you foreshadowing, Jeremy?
+4
Level 91
May 4, 2019
If I don't know answers I don't guess 100 things to be "right". I just skip to the next one and click Give Up. You can't learn anything if all you remember is typing everything that came into your head.
+3
Level 81
Nov 7, 2016
This group is changing steadily. Missouri is pretty safe for the GOP - even in Trump's worst polling periods it never looked like going blue. Virginia is increasingly behaving as a blue state, not a swing state. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, could become more of a swing state and North Carolina looks to be following Virginia's trajectory. Meanwhile I think Iowa could follow Missouri and move towards becoming a more GOP-leaning state.
+5
Level 84
Mar 18, 2017
North Carolina was won by Obama in 08, but since then has mainly gone GOP in national and local races. It seems like it was more of a fluke than anything.
+5
Level 52
Dec 22, 2018
Indiana did the same thing with Obama in 08. I'd still say NC is a swing state though. Enough large cities to be close to 50/50. The rural and urban highly contrast each other.
+2
Level 50
Oct 23, 2019
But it's not about how many times a state was actually won by a party, it's about how close the elections were.
+8
Level ∞
Dec 14, 2020
Yeah, Virginia is now a blue state, as is Colorado. They both appeared on this list until the latest update.
+5
Level 76
Nov 7, 2016
The reverse quizzes, for Republican and Democratic states, are here.
+5
Level 70
Dec 15, 2020
Nice use of red and blue links.
+2
Level 43
Nov 9, 2016
Arizona, Michigan, and New Hampshire not officially counted as of 4:15 today
+3
Level 61
Nov 9, 2016
Not that it matters
+4
Level 43
Nov 9, 2016
This is the fifth election in which the Democrat won the popular vote but a different candidate won the presidency. (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and now 2016. 1824 Republicans weren't around but the other elections the Republican won)
+9
Level 76
Jun 21, 2019
As a Danish person, I don't know anything about the swing states. Got 7/10 by typing random states though.
+2
Level 49
Feb 9, 2020
Virginia? Really? That’s surprising as NoVa is all democrat and that’s where most of VA lives
+5
Level 81
Sep 24, 2020
The state is solid red, though, outside of NoVA, Richmond, and some parts of the Norfolk metro area. As those areas have become more densely populated it turned more and more purple, and is now starting to become blue. But before 2008 Virginia had voted for the Republican candidate for president in every single election going back to 1952 except once ('64).
+1
Level 81
Apr 3, 2021
Happily, Virginia is now off the list. The trend continues.
+2
Level 80
Nov 22, 2024
Actually Trump lost Virginia by a smaller margin in 2020 than he did in 2016
+9
Level 83
Aug 19, 2020
*angrily typing about politics*
+5
Level 91
Aug 21, 2020
*getting reported multiple times for making political comments on political quizzes*
+1
Level 67
Nov 22, 2024
*realizes that this is a fun quiz site and not twitter*
+5
Level 81
Sep 24, 2020
Going by the most recent polling data, the 10 most competitive states this year look to be (in descending order):

Ohio

North Carolina

Georgia

Florida

Iowa

Texas

Arkansas

New Hampshire

Arizona

and Pennsylvania

I'm not really sure I believe that Arkansas poll. If that was a fluke, then Nevada would slide in to the 10th most competitive spot. Would be pretty crazy if Trump lost in Arkansas. But the fact that Texas and Georgia are competitive this year is also bad news for him. Those have traditionally been Republican strongholds and also where they get a substantial chunk of their electoral college votes.

None of the other states are surprising. My home state of Virginia is leaning more blue all the time. Happy to see that sanity is prevailing there.

+4
Level 81
Sep 24, 2020
The least competitive states appear to be West Virginia and Massachusetts.
+6
Level 54
Dec 14, 2020
Georgia was won by Biden this year. the Demographics are changing.
+3
Level 91
Mar 28, 2021
Arizona, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, too. And he almost won North Carolina.
+1
Level 80
Oct 29, 2021
Arkansas impossible!
+1
Level 81
Dec 13, 2022
yeah... I told you that poll looked weird. Final results bore out our suspicions.
+1
Level 93
Jul 27, 2023
It's like how South Carolina in 2016 had a couple polls showing Hillary winning there and she lost soundly on election night. There's always going to be some funky polls that are head-scratching to look back on.
+3
Level 63
Dec 14, 2020
I'd argue Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire are no longer swing states. I think Texas has become a swing state, though.
+4
Level 54
Dec 14, 2020
Not so fast on Florida, but other than that, you are right
+6
Level 58
Dec 30, 2020
Saying Florida isn't a swing state anymore is a rushed conclusion in my opinion, I'd wait for the 2022 midterms and 2024 election to see. For all we know, it could have been a fluke because of the much-more-Republican-than-usual Cuban vote in Miami-Dade. Other than that, I'd agree.
+2
Level 67
Mar 28, 2021
Yeah, it is well-known that Cuban-Americans are repelled by the notion of "socialism," and the GOP has been selling the notion that the current Democratic party is a Marxist cabal. Now that Biden is actually in office and the Democrats control the Senate, I think many people will see there is not going to be a socialist revolution. Biden's stimulus plan seems very popular and he has, at least in the early going, avoided engaging in the cultural wars and general spirit of mania that characterized the previous administration. I think it will bring back some voters. I also don't think anyone has any idea what the Republican votership will look like without Trump. He's such an anomaly. Will his fanbase follow an "establishment" candidate? If a Trump surrogate wins the nomination, can he inspire the same fervor without Trump's unique personal appeal? Seems impossible to tell, and four years is a long time.
+2
Level 53
Mar 31, 2021
There's still a lot of people coming in from California, New York, Illinois, etc (mainly democrats).
+1
Level 93
Jul 27, 2023
I think the 2022 midterms kind of confirmed the point. Florida, while not likely to be solid Republican as far as raw margins (R+10 or more), is going to be comfortably Republican in 2024 regardless of who the nominee is. It's just zooming to the right the same way Colorado rocketed to the left since the Obama years.
+3
Level 80
Nov 22, 2024
Seems like you were right about Iowa, Ohio and Florida, but wrong about Nevada and Texas.
+1
Level 28
May 25, 2025
Iowa and Ohio are always red lol. Florida has been for like 3 elections at least
+5
Level 76
Dec 15, 2020
Surprised to see Michigan is missing from this list.
+3
Level 53
Dec 15, 2020
Michigan is pretty much a democratic state, along with the great lakes region.
+1
Level 44
Dec 2, 2024
Mmmmm
+2
Level 53
Dec 16, 2020
The only time it voted republican in the last 4 election was in 2016.
+5
Level 53
Dec 16, 2020
This election added Arizona and Georgia here, right?
+5
Level 58
Dec 30, 2020
It did, yes.
+3
Level 68
Feb 24, 2021
So glad Colorado finally got moved off the list...
+1
Level 68
Mar 28, 2021
Could do with 30 more seconds.
+1
Level 57
Mar 28, 2021
In no universe has New Hampshire ever been a swing state--EVER. Michigan is much more such a state. Iowa is shaky as well.
+7
Level 68
Mar 28, 2021
Well, Trump almost won New Hampshire in 2016, so....
+15
Level ∞
Mar 29, 2021
Sorry @ksockwell. This quiz is based on numbers, not feels.
+6
Level 60
Mar 31, 2021
New Hampshire was solidly Republican pre-WW2 except for Wilson and FDR, and again until a blip in 64 for LBJ. After that it was Republican again until Clinton, went for Bush 04 but not Bush 08, and stayed Dem since with a VERY narrow gap in 16. It also has a GOP trifecta at the state level. It couldn't be more of a swing state!
+1
Level 93
Nov 1, 2024
Minor nitpick, New Hampshire went for Bush (R) in 2000, flipped to Kerry (D) in 2004, and has gone Democratic ever since. McCain was the Republican nominee in 2008, not Bush.
+1
Level 76
Apr 6, 2021
Why is Georgia as 4.5% placed above Pennsylvania at 4.0%?
+1
Level 63
Jun 1, 2022
Looks like the new ten are NV AZ GA PA WI MI NC FL TX and either MN or NH?
+1
Level 52
Jul 16, 2022
You forgot IA.
+2
Level 78
Aug 26, 2023
They're trending only further to the right, and I believe they're not considered a swing state anymore.
+1
Level 78
Aug 26, 2023
Minnesota will never vote red (at least on a national level) anytime soon—the Democratic majority nearly always overpowers the Republicans, no matter how small the margin.
+10
Level 71
Nov 24, 2023
No suprise at all that Kalbahamut can't shut up if a quiz is about US elections. WE DON'T CARE FOR YOUR OPINION MATE
+1
Level 66
Jul 4, 2024
Should he not be allowed to express his own opinion simply because some people dislike him?
+5
Level 78
Nov 22, 2024
He seems to have finally left the website. His condescending obnoxious comments will not be missed by me
+1
Level 93
Nov 1, 2024
I'm guessing that when this quiz updates later this year, New Hampshire will be gone from the list, and Iowa and Ohio are likely going to move several places down the list. They're not really swing states anymore.
+7
Level 93
Nov 6, 2024
Okay what the heck just happened?
+2
Level 71
Nov 7, 2024
Florida will drop way down. Iowa and Ohio might drop off. I'm surprised no Michigan, but they'll probably be on here. And basically all of these shifted red this year, so the difference for PA and Wisconsin will go down.
+3
Level 55
Nov 7, 2024
I can never understand why y'all have this system of voting.
+2
Level 94
Nov 21, 2024
So that the handful of largest cities don't get to completely run 100% of the federal government.

It only varies from the popular vote like 5% of the time anyway.

+5
Level 47
Nov 21, 2024
So instead a handful of states control the entire federal government

Any system where you can win an election without receiving the most votes is fundamentally flawed

+1
Level 67
Dec 1, 2024
Congress still exists though, it's just the presidency which is inherently going to be 100% controlled by a certain party. Also, cities have people of all political beliefs, an overwhelming majority might vote a certain way but popular vote just means all of their votes are counted. Trump just won the popular vote so clearly it doesn't automatically make Democrats win. Right now the electoral college isn't even proportional which is why the concept of swing states exists and both minority and majority votes in safe states can be considered wasted.
+3
Level 76
Nov 21, 2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Background

In short, it was known that the system isn't perfect, but was established as a last resort as all other proposals were rejected.

Popular vote was rejected by slave states and less populous states (which would be outcompeted by northern states with significantly more suffrage and more populous states, respectively).

A congressional vote was considered, but ultimately rejected as it undermined the concept of separation of powers (that the three branches of government should not be influenced too much by each other).

In the end, most states were okay with the idea of delegates proportional to representation in Congress, and voting done by a group of basically random people was chosen so that the electors would not be too influenced by congress or (theoretically) party politics, and so they could not extensively collude with each other over multiple elections.

We happen to have maintained the system since.

+2
Level 75
Nov 25, 2024
Basically, the people in charge (the founding fathers) were afraid of giving too much power to the popular vote, thinking that the masses (white, male, property owners) were too emotional and prone to 'tyranny' towards the wealthy elite. (Back then, people felt tyranny could come from above or below in the social classes.) So they gave the direct power to elect the president instead to an electoral college, a group of elites who could be more trusted to maintain the social order.
+2
Level 85
Nov 8, 2024
Needs a bunch of updates now. Some EVs have changed (Florida's at 30), and I'm sure the percentages have also changed.
+4
Level 77
Nov 21, 2024
Wow. Ohio's not even on here.
+5
Level 78
Nov 21, 2024
New Jersey only misses the list by a few decimal points. For reference, it was D+15.94 in 2020. The writing is on the wall for Democrats...
+2
Level 68
Nov 21, 2024
While yes, the margins were significantly better for Republicans in 2024 than in 2020 in significantly blue areas, I would not go as far to say there is an underlying trend here. A lot of the increase in Republican vote share in blue areas was due simply to Democrats not turning out. And while yes, there are minor trends indicating Republican movement in these states, they are not large enough to flip the states. Margin comparison is important in seeing trends, but the most accurate way to see state-by-state trends is to compare the state margin difference to the national margin difference. In New Jersey's case, the shift was about 10 percentage points. At the time of writing this, however, the national environment has Trump up by 2%. When compared to Biden's 4% win, this makes the national trend R+6. New Jersey's overall trend would therefore be four percentage points better for Republicans in 2024 than in 2020.
+3
Level 68
Nov 21, 2024
I will add a caveat to this however: In New Jersey, at the time of writing this, Trump increased his vote share by about 100,000 votes, while Harris lost Biden's vote share by about 400,000. While yes, Trump gained support, the much more immediate reason for the reduction in Democratic support is the reduction in the number of Democrats supporting Harris. This can be chalked up to a number of factors, but it clearly points to one: the Republican gains in blue states aren't really due to underlying trends, they are due to Democrats not turing out to vote. I will also add that New Jersey's population increased by a little over 400,000 people since 2020, and with a 2020 turnout of ~72% (considering that number doesn't change too drastically among Republicans), it would be expected that republicans gain about 100,000 votes ( .72*.41*400,000). So, when all is said and done, Republicans maintained the number of expected votes they had while Democrats drastically reduced theirs.
+3
Level 68
Nov 21, 2024
While yes, margins can show trends, I would not read in too heavily into them. The only instance where I would use margins is between nonconsecutive cycles with similar national environments (for instance, 2020 vs. 2012 is a good comparison due to both having D+4 national environments). I will always stand on this: partisans will use whatever data supports their arguments to show that their side is gaining popularity and the other side is losing popularity. Political systems are generally set up in such a way, and I know this may be cynical, that nothing substantial changes for lower-class people while people with money are able to influence policy; party changes happen solely on whichever party is in power and if the current state of the country (economy, social issues, etc.) is beneficial to them. And while yes, there are social distinctions to be made between parties, when all is said and done, state by state differences matter far more than whatever national party is in charge.
+2
Level 76
Nov 21, 2024
This is a convincing and well-written analysis, and a rebuttal to the idea that Republicans are gaining Democrat votes in New Jersey. However, I think such a huge number of Democrats not turning out could still support for the "writing on the wall" claim. That might rebound though, depending on how the next four years go.

Unrelated, I would say there have been substantial changes for lower-class people as a direct result of government policies in the last few decades — like Obamacare and the war on drugs — despite wealthy influences being present that whole time. Maybe I just have a lower threshold than you regarding what amounts to "substantial", though.

+1
Level 68
Nov 22, 2024
I definitely would agree that if Democrats don't change anything in their electoral playbook, they could see further decline due to people not turning out, which would increase Republican vote share. I would agree that Obamacare has had a substantial impact on lower-class people, especially people in the South. But recently (and I think this is a big reason for the Democratic decline in states like Ohio, West Virginia, and Iowa), national Democrats have not enacted such policy, and nor have Republicans. And while I will not depreciate the amount of help Obamacare has done, many of the loosening of regulatory measures, along with the reduction in the national corporate and income tax rates have negated any loss for wealthy corporations or people, effectively being a net bonus for the richest while appeasing the partisan base.
+1
Level 95
Nov 21, 2024
As an independent voter who has disliked the choices is the last two elections and look forward to the clean slate arriving in the 2028 election, I am surprised by the significant drop in the popular vote for the Dems. Granted there was a red shift generally, but Harris (at last count) got 7 million votes fewer than Biden in 2020, while Trump got about 2.5M more. The conspiracists on the right will beat the drums again about mysterious votes in 2020, but I am curious to hear from any Dems here as to why there was such a large drop. A lack of enthusiasm for Harris who was thrust into the campaign at the last minute is an obvious initial possible reaction, but any other factors?
+1
Level 89
Nov 21, 2024
I'm not sure if he'll run again, but Trump will be eligible again for 2028. You can't serve more than two consecutive terms as US president, but you can serve more than two terms.
+14
Level ∞
Nov 21, 2024
No.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

+2
Level 82
Nov 21, 2024
Non-consecutive terms still limit a president to two terms max. There is a caveat that allows a president to serve up to 10 years--he or she could serve the last 2 years or less of a president who died/became incapacitated, then be eligible to serve two full future terms.
+1
Level 47
Nov 21, 2024
Untrue. The 22nd amendment is pretty clear.

"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice" - verbatim

+2
Level 89
Nov 22, 2024
Ah, thanks everyone! Don't mind me. I'm just a relieved Independent who just learned something new. Kinda why I come here to begin with lol
+1
Level 91
Nov 22, 2024
Even if Trump could find a way to get the 22nd amendment appealed and run again in 2028, I don't think he'd go for it. He's too old. He will be 82 by the end of his run provided he lives that long.
+5
Level 76
Nov 21, 2024
My honest recommendation is to not search for answers on Jetpunk, and to instead seek answers from publicly available, reputable sources with a history in good political analysis. (Not that I have any recommendations for what sources those could be.)

My experience on the Internet so far has been that the loudest among my fellow Harris voters scapegoat whichever demographic they think didn't "turn out enough" (even demographics that would not have made up the difference anyways), OR, less often, scapegoat Harris herself for objectively untrue accusations (like claiming she didn't mention her policy proposals — she did). I think you'll get closer to the actual answer if you look for professional political analysis rather than voterbase opinions.

+4
Level 95
Nov 21, 2024
Obviously I'm not going to rely on a quiz site for definitive answers, just curious what some folks here might think. As for "professional political analysis", I think we got a good dose of how much that is worth is terms of objectivity and accuracy leading up to this election. Not talking just about the pollsters - I honestly don't think that the most visible political analysts (left or right) who are mainly based in major media centers and Washing ton DC have much of a clue anymore what the rest of the country actually thinks.
+3
Level 76
Nov 22, 2024
Even then I still think you'll get something *closer* to the truth from people who have training in this stuff. Left and right-leaning analysts do seem quite biased, though there are some non-partisan analysts too. Pew Research Center jumps to my mind, though I'm not sure how much they delve into politics or if they have anything substantial written about this election yet.

I do think it's fair to wonder what people are thinking, though. I'm glad you aren't taking these replies as gospel.

+14
Level 56
Nov 22, 2024
Brit who has been following the election for months

Here are my guesses as to why the Dems and Harris underperformed:

• Biden dropped out way too late not giving Harris enough time to really assert herself in the election campaign

• Trump's campaign strategy of going on podcasts and targeting young male voters seems to have paid off

• (Some) Americans are still resistant to having a female as their chief in command

• Some key demographics just didn't turn out for the election and those who did were much more likely to switch to Trump than Harris (Arab Americans, Hispanics etc)

• Harris simply give didn't enough clear cut policies that resonated with voters (besides abortion). Trump's anti immigration and protectionist messaging is something that many voters (particularly in the key swing states) agreed was an issue.

• Incumbent governments are losing around the world due to the shocks of COVID and the Ukraine war. These stoked inflation and voters seem to really hate inflation.

+1
Level 78
Nov 22, 2024
I think this is a pretty fair assessment. Generally speaking also, a good economy favors the incumbent and a poor economy favors the challenger. People still feel a crunch as wages haven't climbed as fast as inflation which bodes poorly for the incumbent.

The final point is Harris' general unlikability. As a brit, i'm not sure if you know that she ran for president in 2020, but she was so unpopular as a candidate that she dropped out of the primary before the first votes were even cast. Then as VP, she had a very low favorability rating. People just didn't like her. I don't think there are enough Americans who wouldn't want a female president to move the needle, but there were obviously a lot of Americans who didn't want THIS female president. I think her gender had very little to do with it.

+2
Level 95
Nov 22, 2024
Thank you, buck1017, for your comments. Fairly or not, incumbents get the credit or the blame for the economy. Examples are Carter in 1980 and George Bush Sr in 1992 who had the highest approval rating ever after the first Gulf War and then lost to Clinton when the economy turned sour (although plenty of other factors at work in both cases).

Also, re my point above about a clean slate in 2028, I think that Harris' failure to gain any traction in the 2020 primaries, as you point out, and her loss to Trump will be too much for her to overcome in 2028 when others like Newsome, Whitmer, et al may well throw their hats in.

+2
Level 91
Nov 22, 2024
I think the moment I knew Trump was probably going to win this year was when he survived that assassination attempt back in July. He gained some popularity from that and it also made Elon Musk publicly endorse him, which ended up being pretty important. And as much as I was rooting for Harris to win I agree that her campaign was pretty weak and came in way too late for most people to really go for her. I guess now we'll just see how the next four years play out.
+2
Level 56
Nov 23, 2024
I would be slightly sceptical over your point regarding her likeability. As soon as she entered the campaign, her net favourability actually skyrocketed from -15 up to zero, which is 5 points above Trump's favourability. I am aware that she ran in 2020 pitching herself as a left leaning Democrat which for some reason fails to land with voters and Democrats alike.
+2
Level 95
Nov 22, 2024
Nichster- thank you for your observations.
+2
Level 56
Nov 23, 2024
Happy to help!
+1
Level 55
Nov 25, 2024
how do you change the color on the hint?
+2
Level 63
Nov 30, 2024
Regardless of your political beliefs, I think we can all agree that it's hilarious that Trump will be the one handing out the World Cup trophy in 2026.
+3
Level 52
Dec 1, 2024
What's even crazier is that new jersey would have been eleventh, with a difference of 5.9%.
+1
Level 44
Dec 2, 2024
I would interpret "vote differential" as the difference in vote count, not the difference in percentages. Maybe nobody else has this problem, but to me the question is asking something different.
+1
Level 28
May 25, 2025
Thank god we are a republican country now!
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