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Index Level
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Hint: Snippet of 2023 violence trends
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Country
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Extreme
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Many anti-coup activists took up arms in an effort to defend their local communities from the military’s violence, forming resistance groups. Meanwhile, the military has also backed the formation of local militias to fight against anti-coup forces.
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Myanmar
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Extreme
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Opposition forces have maintained limited control in the northwestern city of Idlib, and on the Iraq border. However, a 2023 earthquake has made effective governance nearly impossible, as the opposition forces have scrambled to meet the needs of citizens.
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Syria
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Extreme
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Airstrikes have continued unabated across the coastal enclave since 7 October, and the majority of deaths are of children and women.
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Palestine
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Extreme
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Persistently high levels of violence were driven by competition between more than 70 active armed narco groups vying for the control of lucrative illicit economies — including drug and human smuggling, and extortion. These groups control large swaths of territory.
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Mexico
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Extreme
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The northern states are engulfed in long-standing conflicts, with violent jihadist groups and criminal gangs attacking local communities. In the south, civil unrest continues against the backdrop of ongoing violence between farmers and herders as well as insurgent campaigns.
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Nigeria
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Extreme
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On 8 January 2023, following the defeat of then-president in the general election and the inauguration of his successor, a mob of his supporters attacked federal government buildings in the capital.
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Brazil
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Extreme
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Indigenous and afrodescendant communities are most exposed to ongoing violence in rural areas, despite the peace deal.
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Colombia
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Extreme
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In the capital, the ongoing turf war between the G-9 and G-Pèp gang alliances has continued to fuel violence. Gangs such as Grand-Ravine and 5 Seconds have led incursions to contest control of the capital’s southern entrance.
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Haiti
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Extreme
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As missile and drone launches have failed to reach their intended targets, the Houthis have expanded their military activities into the Red Sea.
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Yemen
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Extreme
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As the country continues to grapple with the fall-out from the 2021 coup, it faces a deadly conflict between the armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The RSF controls four out of five Darfur states.
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Sudan
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High
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Long standing conflicts in the restive eastern provinces, including the March 23 Movement (M23) insurgency and countrywide violence surrounding the December general elections, fueled another turbulent year. Disputes over land and authority between the Teke and Yaka communities also continued in the west, spreading to Kwango territory in 2023.
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
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High
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The post-2003 security landscape has seen the proliferation of dozens of militias identifying with Shiite Islam. Many of these actors are integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – a paramilitary group established in 2014 to counter the Islamic State and later incorporated into the state forces.
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Iraq
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High
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Fatigue from the positional war and proliferating crises elsewhere seem to diminish interest in Europe's major conflict. But, the war shows no signs of abating, as the deadlock on the frontlines does not translate to a lack of activity. Indiscriminate shelling, air and drone strikes on populated areas continued to claim civilian casualties.
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Ukraine
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High
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The country reels from multiple crises, including an economic downturn, tensions along its disputed borders, and rising militancy. The resulting instability has served to strengthen the hand of the military, the dominant force in politics. Claims of military interference in the democratic process are rife. Violence has clustered in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan
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Pakistan
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High
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More than 60 people were killed in a suspected jihadist attack on a river boat near the village of Abakoira in the northern Tombouctou region in September 2023. This marks one of the deadliest incidents yet in an ongoing surge in violence targeting civilians amid simultaneous military and armed group offensives across the Sahel.
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Mali
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High
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The government continued its systematic discrimination and stigmatization of religious and other minorities, particularly Muslims. Dominant party supporters increasingly committed violent attacks against targeted groups.
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India
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High
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Almost one in every four people in this landlocked Sahelian country of 20 million people need urgent humanitarian assistance.
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Burkina Faso
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High
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On 19 December 2023, in the deadliest demonstration so far, demonstrators set ablaze a train near the capital city, resulting in the reported deaths of at least four passengers. BNP chair Zia remains under house arrest following her 2018 conviction on charges of corruption, while her son and acting chairman Tarique Rahman, also convicted, is living in London in self-imposed exile.
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Bangladesh
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High
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The north is marked by attacks by pastoral militia, cattle rustling, inter- and intra-ethnic disputes over water and pasture, as well as violence perpetrated by suspected al-Shabaab militants. The spread of small arms and light weapons has worsened security.
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Kenya
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High
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Armed clashes and violence targeting civilians have continued unabated throughout 2023 due to persisting competition among gangs, especially in the country’s overcrowded prisons where violence has surged. This country geographically constitutes a key transit point for transnational drug trafficking, and Tegucigalpa is a crime hotspot.
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Honduras
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High
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Gang feuds continue to drive high levels of violence on the island, prompting the government to extend state of emergency measures and order curfews in several parishes. Critics have said that this has led to state forces’ abuses of power.
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Jamaica
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High
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November 2023 marked a year since the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the government signed a peace agreement that ended two years of armed conflict in the north. But, violent conflict has continued in other locations.
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Ethiopia
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High
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In a surprise attack on 7 October, militants broke through a security barrier, attacking border communities and military positions. Militants killed at least 1,400 – mostly civilians – in the assault, and abducted over 200.
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Israel
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High
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Pro-democracy demonstrations were held throughout October, organized in response to attempts to interfere with the victory of the president-elect. Indigenous demonstrators participated in roadblocks that lasted for 20 consecutive days.
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Guatemala
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High
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Islamist insurgent operations in the Extreme-North region resulted in a significant conflict escalation. Boko Haram (JAS) and the Lake Chad faction of the Islamic State West Africa (ISWAP) engaged in heavy fighting with national troops, Multinational Joint Task Forces, and local militias.
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Cameroon
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High
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The longstanding conflict largely concluded in 2021. Nonetheless, political violence in the country continues. Retaliatory attacks, use of collective punishment, and a broad crackdown on women and the press reveal severe repression. Musicians, artists, women's rights activists, and others have fled the country.
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Afghanistan
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High
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Most of the events involved clashes between security forces and al-Shabaab. In Feburary, a man opened fire on senior military officials and instructors from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain while they were praying at a coastal military base.
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Somalia
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High
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As things stand, the war waged by the communists remains the world’s longest-running communist insurgency, continuing to defy military pronouncements of their defeat as they have several times in the past. The country reels from a catastrophic “war on drugs” that killed thousands.
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Philippines
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High
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Rates of violent deaths dropped to their lowest level in more than two decades following years of massive migration as both criminals and victims fled the nation’s economic crisis.
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Venezuela
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High
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Political violence on the two islands reached some of its highest monthly levels since 2018 amid increasing targeted attacks against civilians by unidentified gunmen. Most of the attacks occurred in Tunapuna-Piarco – a hotspot for drug trafficking and extortion.
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Trinidad and Tobago
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It's very hard to find non-partisan coverage, but even US NPR (left-wing) covered the substantial decrease in casualty count (~10,000 lower!) for women and children in Gaza (but no revision for men): https://www.npr.org/2024/05/15/1251265727/un-gaza-death-toll-women-children
Much of the reported death toll is unverified, and is coming from a terrorist group that the WSJ has quoted in official communications believes a higher fatality count is positive for its cause: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gaza-chiefs-brutal-calculation-civilian-bloodshed-will-help-hamas-626720e7?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1
Military analysts believe Israel has done very well avoiding civilians: https://www.newsweek.com/israel-has-created-new-standard-urban-warfare-why-will-no-one-admit-it-opinion-1883286
Esp when ~55%-56% of Gaza is kids: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_State_of_Palestine