Assuming Grover Cleveland is only in there once, the odds of either Adams coming up is 1/44 - since there have been 44 individuals as president. Having the next Adams come up back-to-back would be 1/43 (the remaining pool of candidates after the first Adams is removed). So the odds of them coming up in a row (not just both being in the nine, but actually being in a row) are 1/44 x 1/43, or 1/1,892...quite a feat.
I respectfully disagree. The odds of picking one of the Adams would be 2/44 for the first and then 1/43 for the second, effectively doubling your chances. (Of course, in the meantime, since Biden was president, the denominators would be /45 and /44 respectively)
But then again, this would only hold if there were only 2 presidents shown. Since we don't care, if the pair are the first two pictures showing up, or picture 2 and 3, or picture 3 and 4, and so on, we have to multiply this chance by the number of possible positions of the pair, which is 8.
Hence, the actual chance is 2/44 * 1/ 43 * 8 = 2/273 = 0.0085 and has dropped to 0.0081 due to Biden
I mean if you have one of them show up, then the odds of the next picture being another one would be 1 in 44. Of course those odds change if you consider it could be before or after the first picture, and also if you consider one might not be on the quiz at all. Anyway, not that unlikely.
Sorry, I should have been more descriptive. I was just ansering Neil's question of "What are the odds of getting two Adams's in a row?". The answer to that specific question is 1 in 1,892. Kal, you are correct about the odds being 1 in 44 for a single event.
Hey there! I made a quiz based on this about historical figures over here. I gave you credit in the caveats. Hope you don't mind, but if you do I'll be glad to take it down.
I love the idea of the quiz but for some reason the boxes kept going in random order and it took too much time to click on the side and scroll back up only to have the next one jump across or to the bottom. The arrow and tab keys weren't helping. I must have gremlins in my computer.
Got both Adams, Bushes, Harrisons, and Roosevelts in one. Although I have taken this quiz way more than would be considered healthy. Outlier was Millard Fillmore of course.
Glad you like it though!
But then again, this would only hold if there were only 2 presidents shown. Since we don't care, if the pair are the first two pictures showing up, or picture 2 and 3, or picture 3 and 4, and so on, we have to multiply this chance by the number of possible positions of the pair, which is 8.
Hence, the actual chance is 2/44 * 1/ 43 * 8 = 2/273 = 0.0085 and has dropped to 0.0081 due to Biden
If you don't care which one you get multiple times, then we can choose any of the first 9 selected.
Firstly, the chance that any one of those 9 appears again when refreshing is 89.38%.
That means the chance you get any president 5 times in a row is this^4, which is 63.8%.
So, actually because we have a small sample set (45) the number we select each time results in a lot of repeats!