Name all the NFL head coaches (minimum 120 games as a head coach) with a career regular-season winning percentage of .600 or better. For reference, in a 17-game season, a .600 winning percentage is 10.2 wins. Active head coaches in bold. Teams that the coach won a Super Bowl with in blue.
Up-to-date through the end of the 2022 season.
Not counting stats from other leagues, such as the AAFC. I would have counted stats from the AFL that merged with the NFL (AFL IV), but it turned out not to matter.
No active coaches are particularly close to making it onto the list at this point. Bruce Arians could make it if he coaches 3 more seasons and averages at least 10 wins/season, but that seems like a tall order.
Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, and Andy Reid are all safe. They will still be on the list even if their teams go 0-17 next season.
John Harbaugh needs the Ravens to win 9 games to stay on the list. Certainly not impossible, but not a gimme, either.
Mike McCarthy needs the Cowboys to win 9 games to stay on the list.
Pete Carroll needs the Seahawks to go 12-5 next year to get back onto the list. That's a tall order, especially if Russell Wilson leaves.
Bruce Arians' winning percentage is good enough to be on the list now, but he's only been a head coach for 8 seasons. If he coaches two more years and wins at least 18 games, he'll make it. Seems unlikely, given his age (turns 70 later this year) and Brady's retirement.
Sean McVay is off to a great start (.679 winning percentage), but he needs a few more seasons under his belt to be eligible for the list.
No other current coach is worth mentioning . . . yet.
Belichick, of course, is safe; he won't fall off even if the Patriots go 0-17 next year. If he maintains his post-Brady winning percentage of exactly .500, he would need to coach for 17 more years to drop off the list. He would be 87.
Reid is safe. In fact, if he has a *very* good year next year, and Belichick has a *very* bad year, he could even pass him in terms of win percentage. Not likely, though.
Tomlin is not completely safe. He needs to win at least one game next year to stay on the list. I like his odds.
McCarthy needs to win 7 games next year to stay on the list. Probably not too hard. On the other hand, he could lose in the first round of the playoffs and get canned by Jerry Jones immediately, in which case he wouldn't even need to worry about it ;)
Harbaugh needs a winning record to stay.
A 13-4 record would get Carroll back on the list juuuuuuuuust barely.
Matt LaFleur: .712 winning percentage, 66 games coached
Sean McDermott: .639 winning percentage, 97 games coached
Sean McVay: .612 winning percentage, 98 games coached
Mike Vrabel: .585 winning percentage, 82 games coached
I think out of these four I like McDermott's odds to make the list the best, but that's assuming Josh Allen can stay healthy.