The Quizmaster's 2022 Predictions Revisited

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Last February, I made my first annual Official Predictions™ for the coming year. It didn't take very long for many of these predictions to look quite bad indeed. Let's see how I did.
Events rated by me as having a 80% chance or higher of occuring
Expected: 18.6
Actual: 17
99% – World population increases in 2022
97% – My property taxes go up at my current residence
95% – I still live in the Seattle area
94% – Average home price in the U.S. increases during 2022 according to Zillow
Amazingly, home prices increased by 12.3% despite a huge increase in mortgage interest rates.
93% – Seattle July 2021 estimated population higher than 2020 census
First decrease in a long time. The rent is too dang high, I guess.
93% – Mark Zuckerburg still CEO of Meta
92% – Vladimir Putin still President of Russia
90% – Kim Jong-un still leader of North Korea
90% – More than 400,000 JetPunk quizzes taken in a single day in 2022
This one exceeded our greatest expectations. We blew our previous record out of the water, and recorded a daily high of 711,156 quizzes taken. We now get more than 400,000 takes almost every day. Thank you to all the JetPunk users who made this possible!
90% – My parents move into in their new house
88% – Joe Biden still President of the U.S.
87% – I still live in my current residence
87% – Elon Musk still CEO of Tesla
85% – More JetPunk quizzes taken in 2022 than 2021
85% – JetPunk releases a new minigame
Maybe next year!
85% – I still moderate quizzes nearly every day
85% – U.S. trade deficit with China higher in 2022 than 2021
85% – Queen Elizabeth still alive
80% – Chicago July 2021 estimated population lower than 2020 census
Probably should have had this higher. The population of Chicago declined by more than 50,000 people.
80% – U.S. official unemployment below 5%
80% – A superhero movie is the #1 grossing movie for the entire year worldwide
I was WAY off on this one. The top 3 movies were "Top Gun: Maverick", "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Jurassic World: Dominion". I probably should have seen Avatar coming.
Events rated by me as having a 50–80% chance of occuring
Expected: 11.4
Actual: 8.5
78% – I travel outside the United States
Canada counts, right?
75% – Republicans win the Senate and House
75% – Dr. Fauci still Chief Medical Advisor to the President
Not sure how to score this one. He stepped down on December 31st. Marking as a tie.
75% – At least 10% of people at my local grocery store still wearing masks
In Seattle a sizeable minority of people still mask at the grocery store, probably about 20%.
70% – Tesla stock declines in 2022
70% – Chicago has more murders in 2022 than 2021
70% – Boris Johnson still Prime Minister of the UK
65% – Novak Djokovic wins at least one Grand Slam tennis event
60% – Jair Bolsonaro re-elected
50% – Mask mandate still in place on U.S. flights
50% – Joe Rogan still on Spotify
50% – U.S. inflation (trailing 12 months) above 5%
50% – At least one Starbucks in Seattle gets unionized
50% – Lewis Hamilton wins the F1 championship
50% – JetPunk releases a new quiz format
We released the Click Quiz format.
50% – I travel to a country I've never been to before
50% – Price of oil (WTI) over $100/barrel
50% – Door Dash stock down at least 80% in 2022
I was much too bold with this prediction, even if I identified the trend correctly. Door Dash stock was "only" down 68%.
50% – AMD higher market cap than Intel
Events rated by me as having a 20–50% chance of occuring
Expected: 8.6
Actual: 11
45% – extremeweatherwatch.com gets more than 5 million page views for the year
This is the other site I've been working on a lot. Sadly, we only got about 3.3 million page views, compared to 427 million for JetPunk.
45% – WHO designates another Variant of Concern
45% – Donald Trump officially announces he is running for President
40% – Aiden Hutchinson drafted #1 in the NFL draft
He was drafted #2. Pathetic.
40% – Quizmaster releases 100 or more new quizzes
I released 117, down a lot from my heyday, but still not bad.
35% – Michigan beats Ohio State in football
35% – Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade
30% – Russia invades Ukrainian territory
Ugh, this one happened only a couple weeks after I made my predictions last February. I figured the odds were relatively low because it would be such a stupid move by Russia. I was right about that at least.
30% – Roger Federer retires
30% – Gold over $2000/oz
30% – JetPunk adds another featured language
25% – WHO officially declares the pandemic over
25% – Ron DeSantis announces he is running for President
25% – Seattle still requires vaccine or negative test to go into restaurants
25% – Elon Musk is world's richest person
He was the richest person for most of the year, but Tesla stock took a nosedive, and Musk was passed by Bernard Arnault who, with a net worth of $179 billion, is the richest handbag salesman ever to live.
25% – Eviction moratorium still in place in Seattle
25% – Another country besides El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as an official currency
The Central African Republic did so in April.
25% – Average price of gas in the U.S. above $4/gallon
Gas is over $4 in only two states: California and Hawaii.
25% – Aidan Hutchinson drafted by the Detroit Lions
25% – Macron reelected as President of France
My prediction was very wrong because it was based on gut feel, not actually looking at polls.
25% – I make a private real estate investment
25% – New record set for world's heaviest pumpkin
20% – Bitcoin finishes year above $100,000
20% – Indoor mask mandate still in place in Seattle
20% – Gamestop stock price above $100
20% – Lebron James retires from basketball
20% – U.S. enters recession at some point during the year
20% – More than 500,000 quizzes taken in a single day in 2022
20% – Capital added, removed, or name change on "Capitals of the World" quiz
Nur-Sultan was changed back to Astana, and Kiev spelling was changed to Kyiv.
20% – I start a new website which gets at least 100,000 total page views
20% – I climb a blue route at Seattle Bouldering Project
Events rated by me as having less than 20% chance of occuring
Expected: 2.4
Actual: 2.5
15% – I buy a new car
15% – U.S. inflation (trailing 12 months) above 10%
15% – Golden State Warriors win the NBA championship
15% – At least 10% of people in my neighborhood still wearing masks outdoors
Marking as a tie. I'm not sure I could get this right without doing a detailed survey which I'm not willing to do. I should have put this much higher.
15% – Seattle has at least one day of 100 °F or higher
15% – Joe Rogan interviews Donald Trump
12% – There is a country name change on the "Countries of the World" quiz
10% – U.S. Covid deaths higher in 2022 than 2021
10% – Russia captures Kiev
10% – Chicago declares bankruptcy
10% – Islamist terrorist attack in Europe or North America killing more than 100 people
10% – Death Valley breaks its record of 130 °F (54.4 °C)
10% – I shoot a hole-in-one in disc golf
8% – China invades Taiwan mainland
8% – Lockdown in a Chinese city for a virus other than Covid
8% – Average price of gas in the U.S. above $5/gallon
8% – Country added or removed from "Countries of the World" quiz
7% – Kamala Harris nominated to Supreme Court
Wacky predictions feel even wackier when they don't happen. I should have put this at 2% max.
7% – Major sex scandal involving Joe Biden
7% – U.S. suffers 1000 or more military deaths in a new conflict
7% – 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth
7% – More than 100 people die in a single hurricane in the US
Hurricane Ian killed 146 people in Florida.
5% – JetPunk is sold to a new owner
5% – Someone beats Usain Bolt's world record in the 100m dash
2% – Nuclear detonation kills at least 1000 people
0.5% – 9.0 or higher earthquake on the Cascade fault
0.2% – Proof of extra-terrestrial intelligent life discovered
0.1% – Asteroid impact kills more than 1000 people on Earth
0% – Cyprus added to "Countries of Europe" quiz
+21
Level ∞
Jan 2, 2023
I was dreading this, but overall, I'm fairly satisfied with my results! There were a couple boners (the superhero movie and President of France predictions were particularly bad) but I think my gut feel wasn't too awful.
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Level 43
Jan 2, 2023
You’d get 5 mil if you got data to Brazil ;) Also, I don’t think many people have patience enough to handle with imperial system...

I wanna see more of these coming. Maybe the chances of Twitter shutting down this year?

+1
Level 22
Jan 2, 2023
You are good at predictions
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Level 50
Jan 2, 2023
Can't wait for some more predictions!
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Level 50
Jan 2, 2023
Also why didn't you change Turkey to Turkiye?
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Level 60
Jan 2, 2023
Likely because it has the same stance as Cote d’ivoire/Ivory Coast and Timor Leste/East Timor.
+24
Level ∞
Jan 3, 2023
Yes, Turkey doesn't get to dictate the way we speak. Imagine if China said we have to say Zhōngguó instead of China. Madness.
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Level 60
May 5, 2023
Then why use El Salvador? Or São Tome and Principe?
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Level 50
Jan 3, 2023
Or if Swaziland made us call them Eswatini.
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Level 59
May 6, 2023
Swaziland doesn't matter as much to us for us to keep it the same.
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Level 22
Jan 2, 2023
I love these predictions.
+4
Level 60
Jan 2, 2023
Finally! The blog we’ve all been waiting for.
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Level 22
Jan 2, 2023
Yeah!
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Level 66
Jan 2, 2023
Not really sure how many Central African Republicans are able to use Bitcoin at the moment. Seems like some sort of national publicity stunt, or perhaps government corruption (somehow).

Regarding Trump announcing his 2024 candidacy — I believe he'll run third party and split the Republican vote, giving Democrats an easy victory.

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Level 70
Jan 6, 2023
Given how he's helping McCarthy try and win the speakership he seems so far to be trying to ingratiate himself with the GOP leadership rather than splitting off and doing his own thing.
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Level 77
Jan 3, 2023
I’m glad you were not right about AMD… I sold all my stock in it a couple years ago!
+3
Level ∞
Jan 3, 2023
It was a 50/50 prediction. There is no "right".
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Level 74
Jan 3, 2023
I didn't even know you had another website besides TheNameGeek (which is sadly dead even if I do still commonly use it)
+5
Level ∞
Jan 3, 2023
It's not really dead, but I don't actively work on it. Sadly, Google never bothered to show it in search results so it was a huge waste of time for me. Too bad, it had a lot of potential!
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Level 65
Jan 3, 2023
I love the 0% chance of Cyprus getting added to the "Countries of Europe" quiz
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Level 75
Jan 3, 2023
- Surely this must mean there's a 100% chance of Trinidad getting added to the "Countries of South America" quiz :p

All around very interesting and well thought-out predictions, nice job QM!

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Level 43
Jan 3, 2023
No, there isn’t.
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Level 72
Jan 3, 2023
Have you read the book "Superforecasting" by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, or heard of the Good Judgement project? Seems like it would be right up your alley. The goal of "superforecasters" is to make accurate, verifiable predictions of near-term events, and the best are even better than prediction markets and intelligence officers with access to confidential information.
+2
Level ∞
Jan 3, 2023
Great book! Yes, I have read it. I'm definitely not a Superforecaster, but I have a good understanding of base rates which makes me better than 99% of people probably. That still makes me woefully inaccurate in general.
+6
Level 54
Jan 3, 2023
Well done, pretty good results. You are right, Avatar and even more Macron were obvious ones, but the global results are still impressive. Congrats!

Just a detail... The JetPunk Daily Word Search could count as a minigame, no...?

+9
Level 60
Jan 3, 2023
It was released before the predictions, therefor not counting.
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Level 62
Jan 3, 2023
Warriors winning the championship at 15% in a bit underrated
+5
Level ∞
Jan 3, 2023
At the time, it would have been considered a bold prediction.
+4
Level 73
Jan 3, 2023
Interesting you put 20% for lebron to retire, higher than the warriors winning the chip.

And the Cyprus one so petty lol

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Level 27
Jan 3, 2023
Are you going to do another one of these for 2023?
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Level 22
Jan 3, 2023
Yeah! Another one would be great
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Level 63
Jan 6, 2023
Sequel! Sequel! Sequel!

#letsstartariot

#pleasedontbanmeforsayingthat

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Level 60
Jan 3, 2023
"Major sex scandal involving Joe Biden" What the hell 💀💀
+3
Level ∞
Jan 5, 2023
I explained this in the original predictions. I don't think Biden is going to get up to any new bedroom shenanigans, but it would be based on stuff from his past.

My feeling is that he's been around for so long there has to be something, and certainly there's a lot of viral videos of unwanted touching at photo ops. At the time, his popularity was in a major downward trend, and it felt possible that the party could jettison him for someone younger.

Galaxy brain thinking, and my 7% estimate was probably too high.

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Level 60
Jan 4, 2023
Surely Cyprus is already in Europe?
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Level 65
Jan 4, 2023
yes but dont say anything or you'll get

i can't say it UwU

+1
Level 67
Jan 4, 2023
No
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Level 75
Jan 4, 2023
Aiden Hutchinson is having a stellar year though!
+4
Level 75
Jan 5, 2023
Aidan/Aiden Hutchinson. Two different spellings used. Don't know or care which is correct, just noticed the discrepancy.
+1
Level 74
Feb 20, 2023
Quizmaster previously said "Kyiv" was a non-English spelling in the 4-Letter Word Chain Game quiz