The Quizmaster's 2023 Predictions
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First published: Wednesday January 4th, 2023
First published: Wednesday January 4th, 2023
+48
Welcome to the second annual Official Predictions™ of the JetPunk quizmaster, in which this flawed prognosticator tries to make sense of the world by guessing what the future will hold.
Because prediction is hard and I'm still no good at it, I've included a percent chance that I think the event will happen. This will also help me to grade my predictions at the end of the year. Note: I will be the sole judge of these predictions. So, here they are, in order of likelihood, my 2023 predictions.
99 World population increases in 2023
95 The #1 grossing movie worldwide is part of an existing movie franchise
92 Xi still leader of China
90 Kim Jong-un still leader of North Korea
88 Charles III still king of the United Kingdom
87 I still moderate quizzes nearly every day
86 Joe Biden still President of the U.S.
85 Mark Zuckerburg still CEO of Meta
85 Vladimir Putin still President of Russia
85 Elon Musk still CEO of Tesla
85 Chicago July 2022 estimated population lower than 2021
80 Twitter monthly active users still at 80% or more of current levels
80 Ali Khameini still Supreme Leader of Iran
75 Andy Jassy still CEO of Amazon
75 Lebron James active on an NBA roster
70 More JetPunk quizzes taken in 2023 than 2022
60 There is a new oldest living person in the world
60 Ron DeSantis announces he is running for President
60 U.S. enters recession at some point during the year according to NBER
55 U.S. official unemployment below 5%
50 A superhero movie is the #1 grossing movie for the entire year worldwide
50 Price of oil (WTI) over $100/barrel
50 extremeweatherwatch.com gets more page views than JetPunk on at least one day of the
year
50 Ceasefire in the Ukraine/Russia war
50 Gold over $2000/oz
50 Tom Brady active on an NFL roster
50 Euro worth less than $1 at end of year
40 The S&P 500 finishes the year positive
40 WHO officially declares the pandemic over
35 Average price of gas in the U.S. above $4/gallon on Dec 31
30 A new Taylor Swift song reaches #1 on the U.S. pop charts
30 Value of Binance coin (BNB) declines by 90% or more
25 U.S. inflation (trailing 12 months) above 5%
25 New record set for world's heaviest pumpkin
25 Bitcoin finishes year below $10,000
25 Capital added, removed, or name change on "Capitals of the World" quiz
25 AMC theaters declares bankruptcy
20 Average home price in the U.S. increases during 2023 according to Zillow
20 TikTok banned in the United States
15 More than 1 million JetPunk quizzes taken in a single day in 2023
15 Lewis Hamilton wins the F1 championship
15 Elon Musk is world's richest person
15 Seattle has at least one day of 100 °F or higher
12 There is a country name change on the "Countries of the World" quiz
10 New record for most expensive artwork ever sold
10 U.S. suffers 1000 or more military deaths in a new conflict
8 China invades Taiwan mainland
8 Country added or removed from "Countries of the World" quiz
7 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth
5 Russia captures Kiev at some point during
5 At least one Global Position System satellite is destroyed
4 Someone beats Usain Bolt's world record in the 100m dash
4 Nuclear detonation kills at least 1000 people
3 Someone beats Barry Bonds’s record of 73 home runs in a season
0.5 9.0 or higher earthquake on the Cascade fault
0.2 A geomagnetic storm greater than the Carrington Event (1859) takes place
0.2 Proof of extra-terrestrial intelligent life discovered
0.1 Asteroid impact kills more than 1000 people on Earth
negative ∞ Cyprus added to "Countries of Europe" quiz
So X would be (-∞, 0],
Meaning that
X = { X | -∞, 0}
() not the answer, not a real number as [] is the number that x could be.
But overall nice predictions!
Wouldn’t Chicago fact be July 2023? And I’d put WHO’s fact at 35% or 30%. Idk but I think this Pandemic won’t end until 2024 or 2025 ;-;
the other 25% I am struck by a lighting, meteorite, space debree. Mars fever, a vampire, or a piranha.
Congratulations for another successful year accomplished and many good vibes to the QM and the rest of all.
but World Cup is in 2026 ;)Without looking at your percentages (I hid them), I gave these a shot too.
Disclaimer: I have no experience, this is my first time forecasting anything. I didn't spend a lot of time thinking about or researching these (many are just "gut feelings"), and I didn't use forecasting sites. Question marks mean I'm not informed enough to make a prediction. Every fifth statement is labelled.
>99 population, 91, 94, 95, 93, ? quizzes, 90, 88, 85, 80, ? Chicago, 82, 82, 85, ?, 70 Jetpunk, 70, 75, ?, ?, 40 film, ?, ?, 55 (before today's news), ?, ? Brady, 30, ?, 25, ?, 60 Swift, ?, 35, ?, 45, 15 capital, ?, ?, 25, 25, 20 Hamilton, 30, ?, 15, 20, 4 US war, 12, 3, 6, 7, 2 GPS, 5, 2, ?, 0.1, 0.3 Carrigton, under 0.1 (~0.02?), under 0.1 (~0.003?)
please
QM is inconsistent like that (not a diss towards him) but he views military conquest as valid in some places and not in others.
Maybe Northern Cyprus (along with Abkhazia etc.) should just be gray on the world map like Palestine is?
Vs.
Part of Ukraine because US allies say it is.
Don't want to say anything further, just keep the above in mind.
0.00000001%
0.0000000000000000000000000173%
I'm probably the only one who needs an explainer. I often feel very self-consciously exposed around numbers I'm ashamed to say.
caps are the changes btw
I did expect some sort of ' Belgium removed from COTW' or something.
jacinda-ardern-resigns
...I have to try to get my money back now.