The Quizmaster's 2024 Predictions Revisited
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First published: Wednesday January 1st, 2025
First published: Wednesday January 1st, 2025
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Last January, I made my third annual Official Predictions™ for the coming year. Let's see the ways in which I predicted the future – and the ways in which I, um, didn't.
Events rated by me as having a 80% chance or higher of occurring
Expected: 14.9
Actual: 16
99 World population increases in 2024
92 Xi still leader of China
92 Joe Biden still President on election day
90 Mark Zuckerburg still CEO of Meta
90 Kim Jong-un still leader of North Korea
90 Chicago July 2023 estimated population lower than 2022
I had a feeling something might cause this prediction to go pear-shaped, and it nearly did. Chicago's population only fell by 8,000 last year, compared to 28,000 the year before. While Chicago continues to bleed existing residents, it is partially made up for by large amounts of international migration.
90 Capital added, removed, or name change on "Capitals of the World" quiz
Indonesia juked left and went right. Nusantara did NOT replace Jakarta as capital of Indonesia as originally planned. Nothing is certain in politics, which is why I only gave this only a 90% chance of happening, not a 100% chance.
88 Charles III still king of the United Kingdom
88 I still moderate quizzes nearly every day
87 Elon Musk still CEO of Tesla
85 Sam Altman still CEO of OpenAI
85 The #1 grossing movie worldwide is part of an existing franchise
This was a bad prediction by me. 85% is way too low. Not only was the #1 movie part of an existing franchise, numbers 2–14 were franchise movies as well. Boo, I say. Boo.
85 Ali Khameini still Supreme Leader of Iran
85 Average home price in the U.S. increases during 2024 according to Zillow
85 Andy Jassy still CEO of Amazon
84 Vladimir Putin still President of Russia
80 Lebron James active on an NBA roster
Events rated by me as having a 50–80% chance of occurring
Expected: 8.1
Actual: 10
70 Volodymyr Zelensky is still president of Ukraine
As I thought might happen, Ukraine suspended its Presidential election.
70 Ceasefire in the Israel/Gaza war as of December 31
70 U.S. official unemployment below 5% on December 31st
65 U.S. wins an Olympic gold in men's basketball
65 More JetPunk quizzes taken in 2024 than 2023
65 The S&P 500 finishes the year positive
65 Gold over $2000/oz at end of year
60 OpenAI releases GPT-5 or equivalent product
Despite several stunning product releases including O-3 and Sora, GPT-5 has still not been released.
60 There is a new oldest living person in the world
RIP Maria Branyas, age 117. Long live Tomiko Itooka, age 116.
60 Max Verstappen wins the F1 championship
60 Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one Grand Slam tennis championship
50 Elon Musk is world's richest person on December 31st
Even though I only gave this a 50% chance of happening, one person said I was wrong and was extremely confident that Musk would NOT be the richest person in the world at the end of 2024. But not only is Musk still the richest, he massively increased his wealth. At $421 billion, he is nearly twice as rich as #2 Jeff Bezos.
50 Ceasefire in the Ukraine/Russia war as of December 31st
Events rated by me as having a 20–50% chance of occurring
Expected: 4.25
Actual: 4
45 A superhero movie is the #1 grossing movie for the entire year worldwide
40 Donald Trump is booked into jail at some point
40 Joe Biden wins at least 270 electoral votes
40 Donald Trump wins at least 270 electoral votes
40 Price of oil (WTI) over $100/barrel on December 31
35 Euro worth less than $1 at end of year
30 Taylor Swift gets engaged
30 Venezuela invades Guyana
25 Donald Trump wins the popular vote
20 U.S. inflation (trailing 12 months) above 5%
20 Uranium price increases by at least 100%
20 U.S. bombs Yemen with at least 10 deaths
20 U.S. enters recession at some point during the year according to NBER
20 A third party candidate gets at least 10% of the popular vote in the U.S. election
In retrospect a 20% chance is way too high for this, although if Biden had stayed in the race it might have happened. Nevertheless, it's another good lesson for me not to stray too far from base rates.
Events rated by me as having a less than 20% chance of occurring
Expected: 1.71
Actual: 1
15 AMC theaters declares bankruptcy
15 New record set for world's heaviest pumpkin
15 Seattle has at least one day of 100 °F or higher
12 There is a country name change on the "Countries of the World" quiz
12 U.S. suffers 1000 or more military deaths in a new conflict
10 TikTok banned in the United States
Tiktok is scheduled to be banned on January 19th, 2025. Will it happen? Stayed tuned for my 2025 predictions.
10 Russia captures Kyiv at some point during the year
10 More than 1 million JetPunk quizzes taken in a single day in 2024
OMG! OMG! OMG! Not only did it happen, it happened six times, with the record being 1,063,933 quizzes taken on November 20th.
10 New record for most expensive artwork ever sold
8 England wins the 2024 UEFA Euro
8 China invades Taiwan mainland
8 Country added or removed from "Countries of the World" quiz
8 U.S. bombs Iran with at least 10 deaths
7 9.0 or higher earthquake anywhere on Earth
6 OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic announce they have achieved AGI, Artificial General Intelligence
5 Someone beats Usain Bolt's world record in the 100m dash
4 At least one Global Position System satellite is destroyed
4 Nuclear detonation kills at least 1000 people
3 Someone beats Barry Bonds’s record of 73 home runs in a season
1 There is a temperature of 45 °C or higher somewhere in the UK (not counting territories)
0.5 9.0 or
higher earthquake on the Cascade fault
0.2 A geomagnetic storm greater than the Carrington Event (1859) takes place
0.2 Proof of extra-terrestrial intelligent life discovered
0.1 Asteroid impact kills more than 1000 people on Earth
negative ∞ Cyprus added to "Countries of Europe" quiz
Cyprus for Countries of Oceania Quiz in 2025!!!
% of happening, (1^(-10000))%
You predicted well!
Also congratulations to JetPunk on 1M takes (on several occasions)!!
Thanks for keeping this site going :)
I look forward to seeing what you conjure up for 2025 :)
QM predicts 2 events, one with a probability of 50% and one with a probability of 100%. The expected result is that 1.5 of these events occur, a fractional result.
It's pretty sad, honestly. It looks like they are clear-cutting a forest to make it happen. And, according to Wikipedia, there's this:
"The plans come from a Portuguese architectural office. The construction work will be supported by China, Poland, Brazil and North Korea. Construction faces delays such as, according to unconfirmed reports, President Obiang ordered a building to be moved because he did not like the view. Additionally, all materials are imported."
What a waste.
One correction: it's Khamenei instead of Khameini, though his predecessor's name probably adds to the confusion.
Can't wait for the 2025 set!