My Predictions for the 2026 Midterms
Last updated: Sunday May 3rd, 2026
Report this blog
Note
This is not built on bias. This is built from data and polling. No one can truly predict elections so don't take this to heart.
Gubernatorial Elections
Before we start in the 2026 Gubernatorial Elections, it is important to note that 14 states will not be holding these elections to elect their governor. 8 are held by Republicans and 6 are held by Democrats, giving Republicans a +2 advantage in this election.
The Breakdown
Safe States
Democratic
Republican
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Hawaii
- Illinois
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Rhode Island
These will push the Democratic Party to 13 Governors.
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Idaho
- Nebraska
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
-South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Wyoming
This will push the Republican Party to 17 Governors.
Likely States
Democratic
Republican
The Likely States in this election for the Democratic Party will include:
- Minnesota
- New Mexico
- New York
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
This brings Democrats to 18 Governors
The Likely States in this election for the Republican Party will include:
- Alaska
- Florida
- New Hampshire
- Texas
- Vermont
This brings Republicans to 22 Governors
Lean States (Excludes Swing States)
Democratic
Republican
Democrats will gain the following:
- California*
- Maine
This puts Democrats at 20 states
- Ohio
- Kansas (Flip)
- Nevada
This puts Republicans at 25 states
* California elects their governors differently. So far 2 Republicans are at the top of pollings giving Republicans a good chance, however, no clear decision can be made and Democrats have the edge until the Governor Primaries are held.
The Contested States
Democratic
Republican
Democrats are projected to win in:
- Arizona
- Iowa (Flip)
- Michigan
Republicans are projected to win in:
- Georgia
- Wisconsin
Final Notes for Gubernatorial Elections
Republicans are projected to win more states than Democrats in the 2026 Midterms. 2 states will flip, one for Republicans and 1 for Democrats.
Remember that California has weird elections that puts the 2 top polling candidates instead of 1 candidate from both parties.
This was made from current notes from Wikipedia and factors the popularity of the candidates.
Senate Elections
Before we start the Senate Elections, please note that some states do not have the elections for this cycle. Democrats hold the edge over Republicans with 34 seats while Republicans have 31. Republicans only need 50 seats as Vice President JD Vance is able to break any Senate Ties.
Safe States
Democratic
Republican
Democrats are on track to win the Senate elections in the following states:
- Delaware
- Colorado
- Illinois
- Massachusetts
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- Oregon
- Rhode Island
- Virginia
This puts Democrats at 43 Seats
Republicans are on track to win the Senate elections in the following states:
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Idaho
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Mississippi
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- West Virginia
- Wyoming
This brings Republicans to 43 Seats
This leaves no party at an advantage as both Democrats and Republicans are at 43 seats. This leaves 12 states left.
Likely States
Democratic
Republican
Democrats are on track to win the Senate elections in the following states:
- North Carolina (Flip)
- Minnesota
This puts Democrats at 45 seats
Republicans are on track to win the Senate elections in the following states:
- Florida
- Kansas
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Texas
This will push Republicans 2 seats away from gaining the majority with 48 Seats
This now leaves Democrats trailing Republicans as they recieve 45 seats against Republicans 48 seats. This is still a close election though and Democrats can still pull ahead.
Lean States
Democratic
Republican
Democrats have the slight edge in the following states:
- Georgia
- Michigan
- New Hampshire
This brings Democrats to control 48 seats
Republicans have the slight edge in the following states:
- Iowa
- Ohio
Republicans now control the Senate with 50
Republicans now control the Senate through the Vice President J.D. Vance.
The Contested Ones
Democratic
Republican
Democrats are able to win:
- Maine (Flip)
- Alaska
Final Notes for Senate Elections
This is my unbiased thought on how the Senate election will go. This is backed by Wikipedia and polls. Republicans have 51 Seats and Democrats have 49.
Republicans win the Senate as of April 27, 2026, based upon polling and further research.
House Elections
I am unable to predict the House Elections as multiple states are going through redistricting. I will predict that Democrats will win the House of Representatives for the 2026 Midterm Elections.
Final Predictions
Governor
Senate
House
L 23 - 27 R
L 49 - 51 R
L ? - ? R
Please note that this blog is meant to state my predictions based on polling. Do not lose your mind over these predictions as all of these elections haven't happened yet. The first two are built on data and several types of polls conducted from several popular polling sites. The last prediction is only built on polling with around 47% saying Democrats will win and 41% saying Republicans will win.
*Comments were disabled*