FreeStater's 3rd and Final 2024 Election Prediction

After a series of two very bad electoral predictions, and with the election looming tomorrow, I'm going to show off my third and final prediction for not only the presidential election, but the House of Representatives, Senate, and gubernatorial races too.

Anyone could tell you my old predictions were terrible. Thankfully, I have access to better data and am more knowledgeable now, so hopefully this round will be more refined. But we'll see tomorrow, I suppose.

First up is my presidential prediction. The candidates are already set in stone, so I won't need to be introducing them here. This map's margins are, in decreasing order of darkness: over 15 points, 15 to 10 points, 10 to 5 points, 5 to 1 points, and under 1 point.

My final takeaway is Trump winning the election with 286 electoral votes, in comparison to Harris's 252.

Next up we have my Congressional predictions. There are no margins on these two maps, only a hold (light color) or flip (dark color).

First, my Senate prediction (note that Arizona, Maine, Vermont, and West Virginia have nominally independent but Democratically-aligned senators, who I am treating as normal Democrats):

I predict control of the Senate ought to flip to Republicans, with 51 senators, compared to just 49 Democratic senators.

Second, my prediction for the House of Representatives:

Again, I see this house flipping. I predict Democrats will win 220 seats, while the Republicans will win only 215.

I foresee no flips. Vermont is being contested by a popular four-term Republican governor, New Hampshire is being contested by a popular Republican governor's hand-picked successor, and the Republican nominee for governor of North Carolina was found to have called himself a "black Nazi" and wishing for a return to slavery on a porn website... yeah. All the other races are standard party-line stuff.